Posted by Christopher Soto at 2:00 PM
Before even touching the game I immediately run a full year season with zero user interference just to see how Dreslough's magical game thinks the Amazin's are going to do. This year's simulator completely changed the simulation engine. Before the game would predict a game based on the results of each plate appearance based on some "pretty basic math [and] Bayesian Analysis" according to Clay's blogspot. However as Clay noted, plate appearances are a middle level way of predicting games. This year he takes it one step further by predicting games based on analysis of every single pitch in a game. This includes the pitch's velocity, location, movement, the timing and velocity of a batter's swing, the variation of how far the contact location to the ball is to the "sweet spot" of a wood bat, and the angle of which the bat is swung.
Needless to say it creates a much more realistic simulation that can accurately predict a game more much better. So without further ado lets run the 2012 season through the simulator!!!
So for 2012, your beloved New York Mets are predicted to finish 5th place in the NL East with a record of 79-83. Not great I know but it's still better than what some commenters amongst other blogs would think.
The following players are predicted spend some time on the DL list:
Jason Bay- 3 months (April-June)
Ike Davis- 1 month (May)
Andres Torres- 2 months (May-June)
Shocking that the simulator predicts that Santana will survive a full season. In fact the injury to Jason Bay actually helped the team more than it hurt them as Kirk Nieuwenheis stepped into his role and batted .269 with 14 HR's for the year as Bay was reduced to bench duty when he returned. He finished the year with a .232 avg and 8 HR's (TRAID!!!!)
The Team Leader in HR's is predicted to be David Wright with 28 with Duda behind him with only 16 HR's (He bats for a higher avg than anticipated with a .287 avg). Wright also is predicted to lead the team in RBI's with 108 followed by Ike Davis with 76. However, Wright wont win the team triple crown as he finishes with a .288 avg, second to Daniel Murphy's line of .309 avg.
On to the pitching side, the rotation remains intact ALL season .....no major injury, a few skipped starts for Gee and Santana but otherwise a healthy season. The ERA leader is predicted to be RA Dickey with a stellar 3.04 ERA followed by Niese with a decent 4.09 ERA. Despite having the better ERA, Dickey continues to get bit by the lack of run support for him as he wins only 15 games, Niese however benefits as he cranks out 16 wins. He also K's 186 batters through out the season 43 more than his closest competitor RA Dickey with 143.
Well idk about you guys but I'm ok with a 79-83 season. Wright resurgence as an All-Star 3B is crucial especially with the decline of 3B around the league. I'm heavily encouraged by the fact that the rotation SHOULD stay healthy, Dickey will be Dickey, and that Niese will improve. I am concerned about the injury prediction for Ike Davis and how much it skews his numbers lower as he struggles to come back. That's one injury we CANNOT afford this season.
****Disclaimer****This simulation was purchased legally from Clay Dreslough's company www.sportsmogul.com at 10:27pm on April 3rd, 2012. Information regarding the make-up of the game is sourced from Clay's blog www.thegamedesigner.blogspot.com This is only the prediction of 1 simulated season. The results of each simulation may vary by users. For a more accurate prediction of anticipated record, thousands of simulations should be run. Top picture is from www.sportsmogul.com****