Mack and Company and… the Draft

Mack and Company and… the Draft

William James  - Hey Mack and Co!

It's never too early to talk about the draft and I love coming to your website to do so. My question is in regards to our pitching layered throughout the system and no real position prospects do you think the Mets will turn their attention to drafting some bats with the upcoming draft? Maybe a hitter with their first pick and a pitcher with their second pick?

If the trading deadline rolls around and teams are interested in murphy and offer a nice prospect, would you move him if he is hitting? Say uhmm The Bosox want Murph for Swihart do you make this trade? Rays offense seems anemic would you try and match up with them? 

Christopher Soto  - First off, regarding Murphy, I can't see the organization trading him anytime soon as long as his bat continues to heavily outweigh his glove. Mike Baron had an interesting piece the other day in regards to Murphy's growth both as a hitter AND a clubhouse leader on par to David Wright. He's is quickly becoming a favorite amongst both the organization AND the fans.

In regards to the draft, DePodesta has continuely stated that they will draft the best available player, pitcher or position player. The only way I can see this changing is if one of the big name catchers falls into the Mets (Is it ok if i dream about Zunino falling??). IMO best available pitcher in Round 1, Hitters in Rounds 1A, 2, and pitcher for the second pick in round 2.

David Rubin -  Regarding the draft- I really think Depo and company will draft the best available talent (hopefully a catcher, but that's probably not going to happen) in the first round, so that means most likely another lively arm will join the organization, which you can't have enough of. As to Murphy, he's a really good, one-dimensional player on a team projected to be last in their division, in spite of our current success. He's not going to be able to pry a Wade Davis from Tampa, and considering that he's youngISH but not "young" at 27 and doesn't hit for power or field well, he's not going to bring back enough in trade for that scenario to happen. You never know, though, how some AL team in the throes of the pennant race might react and possibly over-pay to get that last "piece" to their proverbial puzzle, so nothing's off the table; however, I just don't see the Mets getting enough in return for Murphy to consider moving him. Great questions, by the way- please keep them coming!!

Stephen Guilbert  - Hi William, thanks for the questions.

1.) "...no real position prospects do you think the Mets will turn there attention to drafting some bats with the upcoming draft? Maybe a hitter with their first pick and a pitcher with their second pick?"   

I believe at the top of the draft the Mets will adhere to drafting the best player available...to a degree. What I mean by that is: If they have a chance to take comparably ranked players, they will go with positional need to tip the scales. For example, two players both Mack and I are extremely high on in this draft are HS OF David Dahl, a five-tooler out of Alabama and HS C Stryker Trahan, an extremely athletic backstop out of Louisiana. Despite being apples and oranges, I would rank these two players comparably for the 2012 draft. Say both are available when the Mets pick at #12 (side note...at this stage I think that is unlikely. Catching is weak in this draft and I think Trahan will probably be gone. Dahl is shooting up the draft boards as well and both might be top-10 picks when it's all said and done. But hang with me for sake of argument). Despite the need for hitting in general, there is a serious need for catching depth in the system and if the Mets have Dahl and Trahan ranked the same way I do, they will pick Trahan. That being said, I do not see the Mets going out of their way to specifically draft a hitter with the first pick. If one of McCullers, Fried, Gausman or Zimmer are still on the board, I could see the Mets grabbing a pitcher with their first pick. Look up LHP Max Fried out of Harvard-Westlake and tell me you wouldn't love his arm in our system.

2.) If the trading deadline rolls around and teams are interested in murphy and offer a nice prospect, would you move him if he is hitting? Say uhmm The bosox want Murph for Swihart do you make this trade? Rays offense seems anemic would you try and match up with them?

I would make that trade in a heartbeat. No question. But I also am not as high on Murphy as most fans. If you have the opportunity to meet an organizational need for a catcher of the future by giving away a player who before long will be forced out of his position (see Havens, Valdespin, and eventually Philip Evans, Danny Muno), you have to make it. I think Murphy is best suited to an AL team anyway who can use him at multiple positions, DH occasionally, pinch hit etc. If a team is desperate enough for a bat at the deadline and will pony up that much to get him, I would pull the trigger without a second thought...even if Murphy is leading the NL in hitting come July (not out of the question, in my opinion)


Jeremiah Alley - William, In terms of the draft I just do not see the Mets going in there with too many preconceived notions about offense.  Yes, the Mets seemingly have a lack of solid position prospects in their system, or at least in the upper levels.  However, that does not mean that a few guys won't make some noise during the course of the season.  Just look at Duda.  A few years ago he was hardly an afterthought coming up through the minor leagues.  You can make the same case for the aforementioned Daniel Murphy.  He was no highly touted prospect, yet he has turned out to be a valuable player.  You could also say the same for Tejada, and a few others as well.

My other point about the draft would simply be pitching, pitching, and more pitching.  That is the more coveted commodity in the draft.  If the Mets have a chance to draft a talented pitcher, one that ranks higher than any other position player, than that is always going to be the way to go.  Because it is far more common for teams to sign their young pitchers to long-term contracts - thus making them unattainable through free agency until after their prime years - it puts extra emphasis to acquire pitching through the draft.  The only way I see the Mets drafting a position player is if that player ranked quite a bit higher than any pitcher when it came their turn to pick, like Nimmo last year.  Otherwise, you can never have enough pitching.

If the Mets are at all competitive in the division come the trading deadline Murph definitely stays put.  You can probably make the case that he would stay put regardless.  But, and you may say I'm crazy for this, the Mets have a legitimate shot at contending in this division.  Even though it is only a week into the season you can see that the Phillies and Braves, the two most talked about teams in the division, have some problems.  Miami, New York, and Washington can certainly make things interesting.  I can see the Mets hanging around in the division for at least a decent chunk of the season.  Under that scenario no one from the Mets would get shipped out..

Jack Flynn  - There is simply no need for the Mets to consider trading Daniel Murphy for prospects, especially if July comes around and he is performing well enough with the bat and the glove to have trade value. Murph is under team control for the next five seasons and is unlikely to get "expensive" for at least two more years. By then, the Mets will be out from under both Johan Santana's and Jason Bay's contracts and (unless David Wright is signed to a long-term deal) will have almost no significant financial commitments.

If the rumors are true, Sandy Alderson's focus has clearly shifted to building from within and locking up young players from the farm system to mid-range deals that will not cripple the team financially. Murph is already 27 and may be too old to merit an extension anywhere beyond his first free agent season, but would be an excellent candidate for a four-year deal with two club options that would keep him in Queens until his early 30s. 

Christopher Soto -

Stephen,

I think your position would truly have to be based on A) if any of the guys in AAA will be ready to assume to takeover July 31st, and b) where the Mets are in the standings.

If the guys you mentioned ARE ready and the Mets are in 5th place and completely out of the race for the second wild card then Yes I agree with you. However, I honestly think Reese Havens is the next Fernando Martinez (nevers makes it due to injury) and that Valdespin better serves us in CF (YEP.....Im jumping on the Valdespin as the future CF bandwagon). 2B is not a defensive oriented position anymore(Murphy, Uggla, Utley, etc). If you find offense there, keep it.  

Stephen Guilbert  -

Chris,

It's hardly about who is ready on July 31st but rather about shaping this team for the future. There is not a single catcher in the system I would call a "prospect". There are 4-5 players who are playing or will be playing second base who I consider true MLB prospect material. When you have the chance to sell high on a player who does little outside of hitting for average for a good-looking catching prospect like Blake Swihart--as per the question--you do it. Especially when you are in the Mets situation financially, in terms of depth, and in terms of organizational need. 

Jarod Alley - William,

While they have some pitching prospects scattered throughout the minors they could always use more. The fact of the matter remains that pitching is a premium product and the more you have the better off you are. The Tampa Bay Rays are a good example of this concept. They have drafted and developed some very good arms and traded away the excess to obtain position prospects or filling holes in their big league squad. So ultimately, I see them drafting the best talent which would most likely be a pitcher because the only two needs I see them drafting would be SS or C and I don't believe they would use a first round pick on either position. Both prospects that would warrant a top 15 pick will be off the board then, only one of which I would actually draft and that's Mike Zunino. Having said that who actually knows. Sandy Alderson picked Brandon Nimmo when most people didn't peg him as being drafted in the first round.

As per the Daniel Murphy question, Maybe, he would be worth trading depending on the circumstances. Are the Mets in contention? Does the offer include a top 3 team prospect or something comparable in value? Here's the problem you'll have with moving Murphy...No one is going to give you the replacement value for a guy without 20 HR power and lack luster defense. The things he does give is a decent to very good average, On Base Percentage and some intangibles like passion, hard work and leadership. Unfortunately, the return they would get for him probably wouldn't fill the void of him leaving.

Concerning your assessment of the Rays offense, careful, they just finished a three game series with the Yankees and scored 18 Runs.