3/13/13

PART 3 Next Mets - The OF: RH Corner OF



Finally we come to the third and final part.  Since the other two parts have addressed CF and a LH corner OF, this final part will cover the need for a RH corner OF, one that can hit for power, produce runs, get on base, and hit legitimately from the clean-up spot.  The first obvious answer is Miami's Giancarlo Stanton.  Since he's the big fish (no pun intended), I'll save him for last.

The first player that comes to mind is Hunter Pence.  It would be great to see d'Arnaud and Pence hit well and help the Mets win a title while the Phillies have to watch what could have and should have been.  The problem with Pence is that he'll likely want more free agent dollars than he's worth and probably profiles better as a #5 or #6 hitter.  He can do the job but I think the Mets can do better.

Another current major leaguer who can hit in the middle of the Mets lineup is Carlos Quentin.  Quentin has been a top run producer in Chicago as well as in San Diego.  In fact, his performance in the pitcher's paradise in SD leads me to believe he could easily do the job for the Mets.  I also don't think an arm and a leg would be needed from the Padres in trade to acquire him.  The problem will be in expecting Quentin to play a full season, something he doesn't seem to be able to do regularly.

In the minors, George Springer and Mike Olt could be part of the Mets' long-term solution.  Springer is going to be a star.  I've written before how Springer could be a great target for the Mets, either on his own or to be flipped later for Stanton - http://tinyurl.com/bcfcu5z.  He's been hitting well in spring training so far and I believe he'll be ready to contribute as a major league regular in 2014, especially when the playoffs roll around.

As with Springer, I think Olt will be up for good later this year and could hit clean-up for the Mets full-time next year.  Olt is even likelier to be dealt at the deadline as the Rangers figure to be in contention and Olt is currently blocked on his own team.

This brings us to the big ticket, Giancarlo Stanton.  Some out there feel that there is no way he'll be traded to a division rival, however the Marlins have shown a willingness to trade with the Mets before (Delgado, LoDuca).  They'll move him for the best trade package in return, regardless of who offers it.  The Mets' farm system might not have the depth to make s deal now but a year from now things might have changed.  Dillon Gee may have taken another step forward, Jenrry Mejia may have established himself as a major league power arm, and Wilmer Flores may have become a top 50 prospect in MLB.  New draft picks might have made other organizational players expendable and existing prospects (Puello, Fulmer, Montero, etc.) will be another year closer to the majors and could have exponentially greater value.  Lastly, there is no telling what prospects will be acquired at the trade deadline that could be flipped for Stanton.  In fact, I would make deals for young players that fit Miami's needs.  Currently they need 3B, 2B, CF, Ca, and as always pitching.  I could see a scenario where Texas is in need of pitching as they make their playoff push.  The Mets could offer Santana + and hold out for Olt as they have held out for top return in other trades.  Then, at the WM they could flip a package built around Olt, Flores, and 3-4 pitchers for Stanton.  If other teams are offering 3-4 players, then we OVERPAY and offer 4-6 players.  Stanton changes the whole lineup, the whole team...not for just now but for the life of these New Mets.  A core middle-of-the-order Wright-Stanton-Davis-d'Arnaud could be devastating for 5 or more years.  It cannot be understated just what a coup his addition to the team would be.  Evaluating the lineup with the best options for a 2014 playoff push, that October 2014 team could be:

1. CF Gary Brown (.5)
2. LF Alex Gordon (10)
3. 3B David Wright (20)
4. RF Giancarlo Stanton (10)
5. 1B Ike Davis (10)
6. Ca Travis d'Arnaud (.5)
7. 2B Nick Franklin (.5)
8. SS Ruben Tejada (.5)

SP1 Matt Harvey (.5)
SP2 Zack Wheeler (.5)
SP3 Jon Niese (5)
SP4 Noah Syndergaard (.5)
SP5 OPEN    

The total salary for this lineup is $58.5M.  I'm assuming $10M for both Davis (extension) and Stanton (arbitration).  I thought it would be best to show what I consider the most ideal lineup as it stands to reason that it would be the most expensive and therefore the most fiscally conservative.  I've also included Nick Franklin as he is my pick for the team at 2B (see: http://tinyurl.com/aslz45l).  Almost $60M for this team that could contend for a WS next year.  The Mets could become what would be the ideal franchise - a Tampa Bay Rays that could afford to keep its players and add to areas of need in order to put themselves over the top.  As the team wins more and grows in popularity (and the team's financial woes abate), salary increases should be easy to afford.  The Mets could have taken a couple of years of suffering to build what the Yankees have had since the mid-90's - a solidly-built team that has a chance to win EVERY YEAR.  It will have taken 3 years but Sandy & Co. will have transformed the major league roster to one that has youth, speed, power, defense, and great pitching.  The minor league system will be in good shape...going forward the biggest task will be to maintain the major league lineup as well as continue to build that pipeline from the majors from the farm.


12 comments:

jonah said...

And why do you think Stanton will be traded? And why do you think the Mets have the best package?

Dan B said...

That's a great lineup but I don't think we'd have the trade chips to land all 3 outfield trades, and while stanton would be awesome he would empty our farm system on his own.

I think you need to fill at least one from free agency. I'd go for Choo and bat him second. I'm sure it will take a bit of an overpay to get him but hopefully not a huge overpay. He'd be in RF.

Now I think with some luck we can get our leadoff center fielder before the trade deadline this year. I'd go after Anthony Gose. With Toronto all in to win it right now Id cross my fingers and hope that they need a vetran pitcher for the stretch run, then trade them Marcum or Santana, paying the entire remaining sallary plus a few lower level prospects. That could be a real steal, putting Gose in CF and batting leadoff. The last target I'd trade for is Mike Olt. Since he's blocked on the Rangers We could probably work out a fair trade for him without emptying our system and he'd be cheap to control.

Our order would bbe this

1. Gose CF Left
2. Choo RF Right
3. Wright 3b Right
4. Davis 1B Left
5. Olt LF Right
6. d'Arnaud c Right
7. Murphy 2b Left
8. Tejada SS right

The rotation would be this

Harvey
Wheeler
Niese
Syndergaard
Montero

Pen

7th Familia / Edgin
8th Leather
Closer Parnell

Dan B said...

That's a great lineup but I don't think we'd have the trade chips to land all 3 outfield trades, and while stanton would be awesome he would empty our farm system on his own.

I think you need to fill at least one from free agency. I'd go for Choo and bat him second. I'm sure it will take a bit of an overpay to get him but hopefully not a huge overpay. He'd be in RF.

Now I think with some luck we can get our leadoff center fielder before the trade deadline this year. I'd go after Anthony Gose. With Toronto all in to win it right now Id cross my fingers and hope that they need a vetran pitcher for the stretch run, then trade them Marcum or Santana, paying the entire remaining sallary plus a few lower level prospects. That could be a real steal, putting Gose in CF and batting leadoff. The last target I'd trade for is Mike Olt. Since he's blocked on the Rangers We could probably work out a fair trade for him without emptying our system and he'd be cheap to control.

Our order would bbe this

1. Gose CF Left
2. Choo RF Right
3. Wright 3b Right
4. Davis 1B Left
5. Olt LF Right
6. d'Arnaud c Right
7. Murphy 2b Left
8. Tejada SS right

The rotation would be this

Harvey
Wheeler
Niese
Syndergaard
Montero

Pen

7th Familia / Edgin
8th Leather
Closer Parnell

Charles said...

I say, don't trade anyone. Keep ALL the young pitching because its going to make the Mets dominant in two years. Next off season, use the 50 million they are going to have to spend and get a good outfield.

With their rotation and infield, Sandy could easily add 25-30 million in yearly contracts for a new outfield, have plenty of cash in reserve and field a great team. Put Flores at second, move Murph and Duda to the bench, and suddenly this team is stacked.

No need to trade any prospects, just let them mature and trade the expensive veterans. You'll get more for Niese, then you would for the prospects. That's how's you keep the payroll in check. This works for the Rays every year and they have a great team and system.

Mack Ade said...

I say this series of posts were great and generated some good healthy banter and 'hits' for the site.

Michael S. said...

Jonah - I think it's a foregone conclusion that Stanton is dealt. Haw wants out, the Marlins don't want a malcontent, and he'll bring a lot in return. As far as the Mets having the best trade package, my point was in saying that they should use the resources they have (tradable vets) to build the best trade package.

Daniel - Thanks for the kudos. I tried to best identify the Mets needs and then find the best players who might be available. I like what you did with the lineup too.

Charles - The Mets can't find spots for all the pitchers they have and have other needs to fill.

Mack - Thanks! I was trying to get people talking. Everyone is hung up on who will play OF this year when I think long-term it's who will be playing OF in 2014 that counts. I'd like this front office use some foresight now and have a gameplan in place when next offseason hits.

Michael S. said...

On trading Niese, I would be all for it if he weren't a LH. He could bring a lot back in trade but we'd have no one to fill even 1 LH spot in the rotation. If Seattle wanted him for Franklin and Hultzen maybe something could be done.

jonah said...

When Dillon Gee pitches 2013 the same way as last year what will his value be after coming year? Could he get the Mets an above average OFer? Or even better?

Unknown said...

Couple of comments.
1. I highly doubt that Syndergaard will be ready at the start of 2014. Montero maybe but probably not, Syndergaard almost no chance.
2. A trade for Stanton is a long shot as it is, with you already dealing people for Brown and Gordon it is almost impossible.
3. You seem to be building to fit your lineup order instead of building with best players you can get. Ike would do perfectly fine in the 4 hole, which kinda upsets your balance thing.
4. You deal flores for Stanton and Franklin, I really don't think we have the pieces to make all 4 deals.
5. This kinda goes back to your old posts. If we have the cash, we are short on pieces why trade instead of sign a guy (gomez, choo etc.)

Michael S. said...

1. Syndergaard would be a call-up mid-season...Mack had posted before that he may start this year at AA....if that's the case he could start 2014 in AAA and then move up later i the year.

2. My guess is that a trade for Brown would be a deadline deal for a vet. A trade for Gordon I have penciled in as Valdespin (he'll be CF this year and make a name for himself), Familia, and Gee/Mejia. For Stanton,the Mets would have Montero, Fulmer, Flores, and whatever deadline prospects they get back for Santana, Marcum, Byrd, etc. This makes it far from impossible but the plan is leveraged on the Mets making a few deadline deals.

3. It's just my preference to do it this way. I think the team is best served with Ike in the 5 with Wright and another star player getting on base in front of him.

4. Didn't mean to deal Flores for both Franklin and Stanton, I was more linking the Franklin post to show why I think he'd be a great 2B for the Mets. If the team is lucky enough to get both players, obviously Flores could only go in one deal.

5. Get the best possible fit for the team. If a trade brings that playerin,the make the trade....dont go the FA route just because we can.

Thanks for taking the time to read and comment.

Dan B said...

I had another thought about a potential playoff lineup for next year.

Trade our vetran SPs for Gose mid year sign Ellsbury (play him in left to keep him healthy, I know he's going to cost a lot because he's a Boras client but whatever, we can afford one big splurge.)

and trade for Stanton(a trade I'm going to assume will take Syndergaard and Flores plus and maybe Fulmer and a few odds and ends) I could envision the following.

1 Gose L
2 Murphy L
3 Wright R
4 Davis L
5 Stanton R
6 Ellsbury L
7 d'Arnaud R
8 Tejada R

That would be an awesome lineup for a number of years.

Rotation would be

Harvey
Wheeler
Niese
Montero
Gee

I know Ellesbury is an injury risk but he's I'd put him further back in the order then most so he's not running quite so much and put him in left field as well to protect his health. I think the farm system can pull of the trade but with all Wheeler, d'Arnaud and Montero graduated to the MLB and anyone else of note above a ball traded it would be a deserte for a year or two. With that team fielded on the MLB level, being a syoung as it is and with an agressive round of extensions the farm can be focused on the following years.

Michael S. said...

In keeping with Daniel's take, here's another lineup we could see -

- Trade for Franklin
- Trade for Olt at the deadline
- Sign Choo in the offseason

2B Franklin
RF Choo
3B Wright
1B Davis
LF Olt
Ca d'Arnaud
CF den Dekker
SS Tejada

It's not as productive a lineup necessarily and the Mets would be taking chances on Olt and den Dekker's development. I just wanted to show another way the team could be constructed next year and that the foundation is already set. The FO just needs to start getting aggressive in filling its OF spots.