4/2/14

Guilbert/Mack - Opinion- Current Top 10 MLB Mock Draft


    1.)   Astros- LHP Carlos Rodon- NC State. No, he has not had the start to the season many thought he would but rather than go for a high school power hitter (Jackson), power arm (Kolek) reach for an infielder (Turner) or take a college pitcher not as good (Beede, Hoffman), the Astros complement their selection of Mark Appel with a southpaw who will be quick to the majors and owns the pedigree and pure stuff the Astros will want with their third consecutive number 1 pick.

    Mack - The latest trend seems to be to drop Rodon to the 2nd or 3rd overall pick due to some early signs of being human, but I have him back on top again. He's a seasoned junior that ETA's for an OD 2016 MLB start. What more can you expect from a pitcher.


   


2.)  Marlins- RHP Tyler Kolek- Texas HS. Kolek’s stock keeps climbing and each start he makes a better case for becoming the first high school pitcher ever drafted #1 overall. The Astros think about it but opt for Rodon, leaving the Marlins happy to take the best high school pitcher on the board.

     Matt Garroich says I'm crazy when I call for Kolek to go #1, but he has given up only one BB the entire season and he's now hitting 102. You get one of two things at this age... all velo or all pounding. This kid has both and he just started shaving. I'm sorry, he would be my number one pick if i wasn't or Rodon.


   
   
     3.)  White Sox- C/OF Alex Jackson- California HS. Another player getting #1 murmurs in recent days, Jackson brings prodigious power and an overall hit tool that should make him a Silver Slugger at the show. While the jury is out about his final position, the bat will carry him wherever he plays. The White Sox cannot miss with this pick and they do not, getting the top bat in the draft.

    You have to think corner outfielder here. Jackson may never put on a catchers mask again (similar to Bryce Harper) after he is drafted. One mock (Thought The Fence) has him #1 overall. He is not going to be drafted as a catcher.


   



4.)  Cubs- RHP Jeff Hoffman- East Carolina. Hoffman slips far enough. Look, with a few dominant starts in a row, he will be back in the conversation for 1-1. For now, the Cubs will be looking pitcher and will be happy to see either of Beede or Hoffman on the board.

     Here's where you start to lose me. Chapman is having a sub-par season for a projected top 10 pick and comes in way behind Tyler Beede and Aaron Nola on my power righty college list. I have him currently out of my top 10 list.

   



5.)  Twins- LHP Brady Aiken- California HS. The Twins were looking Beede here but end up taking another high-impact prep pitcher joining Kohl Stewart for a potent 1-2 punch. It will take a few years, but those two should make one of the better front rotations in baseball if all goes as planned.

    The Rodney Dangerfield of the 2014 draft... on any other year, he'd be the top lefty. A tremendous pitcher. This is the guy you hope is still around if the first nine teams that pick go shortstop crazy.

   

6.)  Mariners- RHP Tyler Beede- Vanderbilt. The Mariners could go any number of directions here, including outfielder Brad Zimmer, shortstop Trea Turner, or high school shortstops Nick Gordon or Jacob Gatewood. Beede will be quick to the majors and should be within two picks of Hoffman. Look for those two to go within picks 3-7 and very close to one another.

     This consistently is the guy I wish would fall to #10, though I'm sure Alderson would never pick a college junior. He has had his moments this season, mainly due to the quality of the competition he has played against. Comparison Mike Harvey.     

   


7)  Phillies- OF Bradley Zimmer- San Francisco. The Phillies like their power-hitting outfielders and after selecting a young shortstop last year, they take another bat. Few players have seen their projected selection spot move more than Zimmer as he has absolutely crushed the opposition this year. They could go Gettys here as well but they opt for the player making the best case for the top college bat in the draft.

     I just don't like outfielders in this draft. Michael Gettys would be the only one I consider having a chance to be one of the top ten picks.


 
    8.)  Rockies- RHP Touki Toussaint- Florida HS. A lot of mocks have the Rockies taking a shortstop in this spot. Yes, you always draft the best player available and Tulo could switch positions later in his career or get traded but the Rockies should go pitcher here. They get one of the liveliest arms in the draft and the one, potentially, with the highest upside. Good movement on Touki’s fastball and a very strong curve should make him a good ground ball pitcher as a pro as well—something that the Rockies understandably look for in their pitchers.

    For some unexplained reason, Touki has dropped the past two mocks. I can't see why. Maybe the highest ceiling in the draft.

   
    9.)  Blue Jays- SS Trea Turner- NC State. This is much too far for Turner to fall. He has had a fine spring so far and has only “slipped” because of excitement over other good starts by previously lower ranked players (Kolek, Aiken, Zimmer). Turner is the one of the most well-rounded players in the draft and possesses some of the best tools, namely speed and defense. The bat is nothing to ignore either, as he has surprising power and makes a lot of hard contact. Blue Jays get a steal here.

   Okay, this could work out for you...Toronto picks again at #11 so the plan is to pick the lowest bonus money first... this would be a great place to pick the best pure catcher in the draft, Max Pentacost.
 
   
    10.) Mets- The Mets want Turner and just miss out. However, there are still a number of good shortstops, a couple collegiate bats and arms, or a high school arm or two that will be good picks. Considering Turner, Aiken, and Zimmer are gone, the Mets take SS Nick Gordon out of Windermere, FL. Gordon reminds some of Jose Reyes and for some good reasons. While I do not think Gordon has the bat potential of Reyes and will not be a 6-7 WAR guy, he is an immensely talented defender and offers speed, potential power, and a complete game the Mets like. He also has a lot of projection left and has climbed draft boards this spring (a few recently having him off the board by #8). Fans will be mad the Mets pass on Gatewood and Gettys but right now, Gordon is the guy. Others will want a college bat close to the majors and look for Derek Fisher and others like a lefty to add to the rotation and will be calling for Sean Newcomb. However, the Mets surprise a lot of people again and get a very talented shortstop, passing on a number of good players in the process.

     And guess what? Trea Turner's all yours!

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