7/15/14

Christopher Soto - 2014 Mets Mid-Season Report Card



C- Travis d'Arnaud
Stats: .217 AVG, .646 OPS, 6 HR, 19 RBI, 1 SB
Grade: D-

     d'Arnaud was atrocious for most of the 1st half of the season. He even earned himself a demotion to AAA to work out the kinks in his swing. Fortunately for him, the only thing saving him from a full fledged "F" is the fact that since he's been back in the MLB, he's been tearing the cover off the ball. Since his return he has OPS'd an impressive .863 which is good for 5th among qualified MLB catchers. Continuing that production is going to be key to the Mets success in the 2nd half of the season.


1B- Lucas Duda
Stats: .256 AVG, .832 OPS, 14 HR, 49 RBI, 1 SB
Grade: B+

     Ever since Ike Davis was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates, Duda has been on a tear. In fact, over the past 2 months, Duda has OPS'd .956 and .930 respectively. Those #'s are good enough to be ranked as the 3rd and 5th best 1B in those months. Terry has begun experimenting with using Duda in the clean-up spot, an opportunity that could turn him into a 100+ RBI player. In the past, Duda has done well there, with a career OPS of .830 vs his career .779 rate, so if the Mets can keep his bat hot, the team is going to continue scoring plenty of runs.


2B- Daniel Murphy
Stats: .294 AVG, .755 OPS, 7 HR, 37 RBI, 11 SB
Grade: A-

     The Irish Hammer is Top 10 in AVG, OPS, SB, Runs Scored and even has a positive UZR. Someone needs to get on base in order for Duda and Wright to drive in runs and Murphy has been that guy scoring 56 times this season. Only Brian Dozier and Ian Kinsler have bested that number so far this season. We all knew that Murphy could hit but his improved defensive play has been astounding this year. The fact that he is now a major league average defender  is doing wonders for his value. Murphy has already been worth 2.6 Wins above Replacement and could break his career high of 3.0 before we reach the trade deadline. For salary purposes, +1.0 WAR is equal to roughly $5.0m worth of salary. So in plain terms, Murphy has been worth $13.0m already vs his actual salary of $5.7m. Enough of the trade talks!!


SS- Ruben Tejada
Stats: .237 AVG, .647 OPS, 2 HR, 21 RBI, 1 SB
Grade: D

     Let me say this first.....Only 2 qualified SS's have a SLG rate that is lower than their OBP rate. The 1st player is Ruben Tejada, the 2nd player is Derek f'ing Jeter. That right there should tell you how bare SS is right now. Tejada hasn't been very good this year from an overall standpoint. However, he hasn't been as terrible as last year as he's at least contributing positive value over replacement level SS's. That said, anyone notice that during the Mets pre-All Star break hot streak Tejada was the only one who didn't partake. Yea a .213 AVG during that homestand is just not very good. Hopefully he can at least hit a respectable .250 AVG the rest of the way in the 8 hole and just stay out of the way of the rest of the bats.


3B- David Wright
Stats: .285 AVG, .765 OPS, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 4 SB
Grade: B

     Wright has been good this season.....just not great. He's hitting for a high average but is not bringing much to the table in terms of power this season. In fact, this season's stat line looks a lot like his poor 2011 season. With news breaking that Wright is receiving cortisone treatment for an undisclosed shoulder injury, one has to wonder how long he's been injured. With all the sidearms throws this season, it could possibly be that he's been playing hurt all year. It would certainly explain why his power has tumbled this season. Hopefully 4 straight days off will do his body some good.


LF- Chris Young/Eric Young Jr.
Stats: .219 AVG, .635 OPS, 9 HR, 39 RBI, 32 SB
Grade: F

     There are 38 qualified players who have had at least 200+ Plate appearances while playing LF. Young and Young are two of them and are ranked 30th and 31st in terms of OPS. In fact Chris Young has been worth negative value (-0.2 WAR). At least Eric Young Jr. has stolen 25 bases. Combined their atrocious OPS is even worse than Ruben Tejada's! Personally, I would continue to put EYJ at the top of the line-up, but with the emergence of Eric Campbell and Curtis Granderson's good play in the lead-off spot even EYJ has no place to go. Hopefully they both stay out of the line-up and "Soup's" .833 OPS continues to get the bulk of the time.

CF- Juan Lagares
Stats: .293 AVG, .734 OPS, 2 HR, 23 RBI, 2 SB
Grade: B+

     Lagares has some very stiff competition in CF when it comes to offensive production. Trout, McCutchen, Gomez, Jones, Ellsbury, Hamilton, etc. However, despite that Lagares has posted a very respectable .734 OPS which is good for 15th in the MLB. A middle of the road bat was is we need from Lagares since his value comes from his defensive play. Currently he stands in 4th play amongst CF UZR with a +11.1 which is amazing considering he has 230+ fewer innings than 2 of the guys in front of him (Billy Hamilton and Jackie Bradley Jr.). Lagares was having a ridiculous year before he went down with a hamstring injury. Now that he's back he's slowly getting back into that rhythm that he started the year with hitting .364 during the recent hot streak home-stand.


RF- Curtis Granderson
Stats: .237 AVG, .768 OPS, 14 HR, 43 RBI, 7 SB
Grade: B-

     Here's a case of a tale of 2 different players. April Granderson hit .136 with a .468 OPS and 1 HR and was booed from Queens to Staten Island. However Non-April Granderson has hit .275 with a .875 OPS and 13 HRs. The real Granderson ranks in at #7 amongst qualified RF'ers with only Bautista, Puig, Stanton, JD Martinez, and Seth Smith besting him. Using our WAR methodology, Grandy has been worth only $9m vs his 2014 salary of $13m. Fans should be plenty confident that he'll cover that cost as he continues to stroke HR's out of Citi Field.

Rotation- Bartolo Colon, Jonathan Niese, Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee, Jacob DeGrom
Stats: 30-31, 3.67 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 3.0 BB/9
Grade: B+

     Even without Lord Matthew Harvey, the Starters have been pretty good this year. When Good Colon shows up he's been flat out dominant, when bad Colon shows up he's been flat out awful. Luckily for us the Good to Bad ratio has been 6:1. Niese and Gee are both sporting sub 3.00 ERA's despite short DL stints for recurring injuries that require down time every once in a while. DeGrom, who was seen as a future bullpen option, has been so impressive so far that he's now forcing the organization's hand to keep him in the long term plans. Lastly, there's Wheeler. Despite being wildly inconsistent this year he has shown flashes of dominance that excites the fan base to the future possibility of having 5 sub 3.00 ERA SP's. His peripherals even suggest that he's pitched better than his current 3.90 ERA shows.


Bullpen- Jhennry Mejia, Juerys Familia, Josh Edgin, Victor Black, Carlos Torres, Dana Eveland, Buddy Carlyle
Stats: 15-19, 20 Saves, 15 Blown, 3.17 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 4.0 BB/9
Grade: B+

     Amazing what youth and an extra year of experience can do. After being last in the MLB in Bullpen K/9 and one of the worst in bullpen ERA last season, the Mets bullpen has now internally developed into a powerhouse that teams are not looking forward to facing. After blowing save after save earlier in the year, Mejia has taken control of the closer's role and now has the brass questioning whether the role belongs to him or Parnell in the future. After struggling in Spring Training, Victor Black and his curveball are practically unhittable. Familia, the righty specialist, has been lights out against righties, holding them to a .140 AVG while Edgin, the lefty specialist, has held lefties to a .167 AVG.

7 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

Thank you for pointing out that the Panamanian emperor has no clothes. I've been beating this drum for a very long time and people point to his OBP via pitch-around and intentional walks as justification for him being in the lineup. Do you realize that in addition to his lack of run production and slugging that Lucas Duda has more stolen bases than he does?

Play Reynolds. Play Flores. Trade for someone. Just bench this guy already! They finally realized it with Eric Young, Jr. Now it's time for the next epiphany regarding Tejada.

Unknown said...

You are spot on with these evaluations, the only one I would switch is D'arnnaud and Tejada. I would make Tejada a d- and D'arnnaud a D+, just because the pitchers love pitching to him and he has been turning it on of late.}

Anonymous said...

In terms of OPS rank amongst other MLB players at their respective positions....Tejada may be in the bottom third.....but d'Arnaud is 4th to LAST.

Thats why he's got the D- but Tejada has a D

Tom Brennan said...

I feel bad giving d'Arnaud a grade that low because of his recent surge, which I believe is more his norm. But he does deserve a low grade. With Duda, a key to that B+ has been platooning him. Platooning him with Campbell results in great production. Maybe someday Lucas can hit vs. every pitcher, but the platoon takes away bad #'s vs. lefties, which would depress his overall #'s - and his confidence. Instead, I see his recent heavy hitting as more the norm for a confident, aggressive Duda - and not a fluke.

Tejada - I am in the same camp...regardless of whether his grade is D-, D+, or C-, we'd be better off with Reynolds there, or Flores. Reynolds may be a bit rushed to put there, as I would not mind him having another month in AAA to build a more gradual upward slope...but Flores is just an RBI machine in AAA - I'd take his much more potent bat at SS over Tejada, even if he is less of a defender. Flores will hit very well if allowed to play consistently - and his extra base hit and clutch hitting ability is better than Ruben's largely meaningless OBP. Ruben can be the late inning replacement until Reynolds has a bit more time. In reality, though, the Mets are hot and won't rock that boat right now.

Mack Ade said...

I hate seeing anything on this site with a D grade

Anonymous said...

DW as a B and Grandy, rotation and BP are B+? There is no way he comes that close in terms of contribution. He is a C at best. TDA deserves a bit higher, in addition to learning to hit ML hitting, he has had double duty in learning with receiving a staff with tons of heat and stuff. Quite a challenge for essentially a first year player and the fact that he has started to dig out instead of folding earns him more than a D- hard to take grading seriously when the author cannot take two extra minutes on spelling and not butchering everyday names. I think you might get below a C in English

Anonymous said...

@Anon

Care to tell me who's named I butchered?

Also as I said earlier these are grades based on the players OPS rank amongst All MLB players at his position.

For David, his lack of power has killed him this year. In terms of OPS he's 15th amongst 3B.

For Grandy, even though he's hitting for a low avg, he's walking at a 14% clip and he is tied for 5th most HRs amongst RF'ers.

That's why he gets a B-.....batting average means nothing if your not creating runs.

As for d'Arnaud, he is ranked 4th to LAST amongst Catchers. That's F standards by any means....BUT as you said his improved play since coming back saves him.....Irregardless, we're still talking about the same guy who was SO bad that he was demoted to AAA.