7/16/14

Morning Report – July 16th – Mack’s Mid-Season Report Card

1911 - Crosley Field

                                                                                                                                            
Coming Later Today –    

            10 am - Reese Kaplan - Out in the West Texas Town of El Paso

            12 noon – Thomas Brennan – TOP PROSPECTS FROM DEEP DOWN UNDER – LAST IN A 4 PART SERIES

             2 00 pm - Stephen Guilbert - Future Major Leaguers- Rookie League Ball

            4 00 pm – 2015 Draft Prospect - OF - Daz Cameron - Eagle's Landing (GA) HS - UPDATED -  7-3-14


Savannah SP Robert Whalen passed his latest rehab test, throwing four scoreless innings yesterday for the GCL Mets.  He now has a combined GCL/Gnat record of 7-G, 5-ST, 4-1, 1.67, 27.0-IP, 31-K. Expect him back in the Gnats rotation before the end of the month.



Two things I was told today: Mets are still unsure if they will go after a bat, and teams haven't begun calling about Colon.



 
Talked to Murphy before today’s game about resurgence. Said key has been Duda. Much improved plate approach in his view.



C Ali Sanchez (.310), SP Adonis Uceta (2-1, 1.48), and DH Victor Moscote (.303) were named to the DSL All-Star team.



Everybody is giving the Mets players mid-season ratings this week, so I might as well jump in here and do the same. I’m not going to cover everyone on the team and there will be a few minor leaguers thrown in, but they all will have one thing in common… they are playing well above the game we anticipated at this point in the year. There’s no reason to rate who is an ‘A’ or who is a ‘B’. All the names I list here have earned their place on this team or the organization.

2B Daniel Murphy – he gets the top rating because he continues to play at a level none of us expected him to. We all expected Murph to hit like this, but very few expected him to pull off this second base thing as well as he’s been doing. Additionally, he’s one of the leaders in the clubhouse and dugout, something that is far more valuable than most people realize. My number one Met this year.

3B  David Wright – Wright could be hitting .200 this year and he still would make this list. I could write volumes on him but if the Mets were the planet of the apes, Wright would be Caesar.  

1B  Lucas Duda – We knew that Duda could hit a homer or two and most of us rooted for Ike Davis to win this battle, but, in the long run, every Mets fan has to be happy with the results of ‘who’s on first’. Sure, he’s not perfect, but how long has it been since this team had a legitimate 35-95 first baseman on their 25-man? As I have said a number of times lately, there are much bigger fish to fry that first base.

OF Curtis Granderson – I thought this was going to go down as the second coming of Jason Bay, but frankly, it hasn’t. Granderson has become reborn as a leadoff man which I guess takes off a lot of internal pressure to produce as that power guy everyone was expecting here. I’m thrilled at his .300-BA in June and, after a 12-83, .145 April, who would of thought he has a good chance of finishing the year at his lifetime BA of .259.

SP Bartolo Colon – Colon hasn’t had the best outings the last three times out, but he still managed to turn in a 3.65 ERA during July. The Mets wouldn’t be in this Wild Card race if it wasn’t for players like this. He also has been a calming influence in both the clubhouse and dugout, especially to the young Latin pitchers on the 25-man.

SP Jon Niese – we always seem to take Nise for granted and, signing him to a long term, cheap contract was a touch of genius. I don’t expect him to stay a Met past his arbitration years (2016), but it falls perfectly in line with the progress of Steven Matz, the top lefty in the organization. If every Met pitcher comes to camp in 2015 healthy… well, this contract alone will make teams reach out for his services.

SP Dillon Gee – Gee may have only pitched in nine games so far this season, but he’s done an effective job in his last six outings (6-ER in 40.0-IP). Consider him the original Jacob deGrom… no one expected him to ever be a part of the Mets rotation, no less effective as a member of it (3.74 ERA in 93 games over 5-yrs).

SP Jacob deGrom – what can I say about this guy? He’s been everything anyone can ask for and has singlehandedly changed the plans for the future rotation of this team. You know me… I really don’t care how fast your fastball is as long as you get people out and stay healthy. DeGrom is now a prominent member of my 2015 Mets rotation.

P Daisuke Matsuzaka – this at best was pure experimentation again this season and it has worked best as a reliever (17-appearances, 2.22), a role you may see him play for the remainder of the time he’s a Met.

RP Josh Edgin – I wasn’t sure we were going to see Edgin at the major league level again, but he’s put up excellent (25-appearances, 1.76) numbers this season as a Met. The biggest turnaround was his control problems, going from a 2013 BB/9 of 3.77 to an excellent 2014 stat of 1.76.

RP Vic Black – everyone knew that Black had to cut down on his BB/9 ratio to make it as a major league reliever. So far this season, after 23 appearances, it has actually risen to 5.06, a high as a major leaguer, but he’s made it up by raising his K/9 from 8.31 last season as a Met (6.75 as a Pirate) to 9.28. 

IF Wilmer Flores – Flores may be back in AAA, but he seems to be taken this in stride. He’s coming off a red hot July (.365), where he also hit seven home runs and posted a .846 slugging percentage. As strange as it might seem to some, I don’t expect to see him back in Queens until the rosters expand. Until then he’ll keep working on his stroke and his confidence.

IF Matt Reynolds – Reynolds is about the quietest second round draft pick in years. He put up some decent numbers as a junior in college (2012 – Arkansas: .323), but hit only .226 last year for St. Lucie. Nobody was expecting much here, but (2014 – Binghamton: .355, Las Vegas: .337) what do we know? Reynolds can play all three infield field positons so he does project out as a future Mets UT, but everything he has done so far this year has been a bonus.

IF Dilson Herrera – Boy, is this turning out to be a great addition to this organization. There looks like there is no stopping the 20-year old, who blew through A+ ball this season (.307) and is now taking on Binghamton (.326). That comes to a combined .312 in 378 at bats, a number even Daniel Murphy would be proud of. Scouts say he’s a better fielder than Murphy so it will interesting to se how the Mets handle the future at this position (me? Keep the all-star and sell the sizzle).


C Kevin Plawecki – The last minor leaguer featured here, Plawecki has already impressed us with what he did at the AA-level (.326) and will try and settle into the AAA level until the rosters expand. The ex-1st round pick in 2012 has impressed at every level and we expect the same for the 51’s; however, I have no idea where to project him in 2015. This is the kind of player you guys talk about when you put together a ‘Tulo-package’. His future as a Met depends on the health of Travis d’Arnaud.

12 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Mr. Dilson is amazing...and indefatiguable, if I got the word correctly. He played over 40 games in winter ball after a full season last year, and shows zero signs of slowing up. Coming fast to a stadium near you.

Duda always has a caveat added to him - but he is having a heck of a year. I did a quick little comparison this AM to just some NL guys:

While Duda is only tied for 69th in NL in most at bats, he is tied for 16th in HRs and tied for 21st in doubles.

19th in NL slug % and 19th in combined on base + slug %. Tied for 36th in K’s. Could be better there.

But….

As good as Marlon Byrd has done, he has struck out an astonishing 114 times.

Uptons have struck out a combined 227 times in 680 at bats. And a combined on base % of .240.

Danny Espinosa on Nats has K’d 97 times in 252 at bats!!

Lucas is on his way to (gasp!) being a star. He just needs to get more aggressive still in "late and close" hitting situations and he is our Ryan Howard.

Oh, and Ike Davis? 250 plate appearances. Two were grand slams. In the other 248, an astonishingly bad 15 RBIs, 23 runs scored, .237 overall. A homer every 50 plate appearances!! Mets made the absolute right choice. Credit where credit is due.

Anonymous said...

@Thomas

For all the Sandy bashing that goes on......the man is a damn good trade negotiator.

Can you believe we got Blake Taylor for practically nothing?

Reese Kaplan said...

Hopefully by the time Dilson Herrera is ready to play every day in the majors there will be a new manager who actually gives rookies a chance.

Stephen Guilbert said...

Love the list, Mack. Curious about the omission of Juan Lagares. I only ask because he's possibly my favorite player on the roster not named "Wright" and I think he's having another fantastic season on both sides of the ball.

Tom Brennan said...

If Terry Collins is still around, Herrera will start 162 games in 2016 for the Mets...163 if there is a playoff. He must have some Cal Ripkin in him - both for endurance and talent.

Chris, Sandy must've told Pittsburgh that besides Herrera and Black, he was still doing Bucs a big favor so they owed him one. And that one turned out to be Taylor as part of the next deal. Otherwise, getting Blake Taylor is almost inexplicable. How do you get a kid drafted 51st in the whole 2013 and out of HS as the player to be named later? Outstanding.

SO...MANY...GOOD YOUNG PITCHERS IN THE SYSTEM.

Stephen Guilbert said...

By the way, Sickles had his top-75 mid-season prospect list published recently and had Herrera in the "other" category. When asked about Dilson's omission, he said:

"Well a lot of the research here was done when the sample size in Double-A was less than 10 games. He’s up to 23 now and still hitting. He’d be in the 80s right now, but if he maintains this and if the reports are good (the only report I had dated back to early April) he would be in the top 75 at the end of the year and it is plausible that he would be in the Top 50."

Mack Ade said...

Stephen -

It's funny you mentioned Lagares. He was on the original list, but I didn't have him on the final post because I forgot to add him

Anonymous said...

@Stephen

I would not put it outside the realm of possibility that the Mets could possibly have up to 8 players in next year's MLB top 100.

Nimmo (Currently #94)
Smith (Currently #84 and the #1 1B)
Syndergaard (Currently #10 and #3 RHSP)
Montero (Currently #66)
Herrera
Plawecki
Rosario
Matz

Tom Brennan said...

Chris, I agree. And if Akeel Morris continues his magic, maybe a 9th.

Question for you or Mack - what was the thinking on the Mets part in 2012 to pass on SS Corey Seager (.352, .600+ slug % in high class A, 18th pick in draft) to pick Gavin Cecchini (.240, far lower slug % in mid/high A?) - both about the same age, Corey is 3 inches and 35 pounds larger? Corey has hit real well ever since he got drafted.

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

The Mets never comment on why or why not they draft someone.

Whatever Cecchini did to impress the Mets happened on a visit/BP session at CitiField just prior to the draft

Stephen Guilbert said...

Yea, that last minute visit seemed to do it. Before then, the only name I had heard tied to the Mets was Hawkins.

Soto, a few other dark horse names who could slip onto a prospect list or two, especially if they continue to pitch well...

Gabriel Ynoa
Matt Reynolds
Robert Whalen
Marcos Molina
Jhoan Urena

Low odds they do, but a lot of experts really like this system, especially with high-ceiling talent low in the minors. All you need is 1-2 to explode the way Julio Urias did and you can add another to the top 100. btw that kid (Urias) is ridiculous. He's going to have one hell of a career.

Stephen Guilbert said...

Pitch *or hit* I should say.