7/17/14

Morning Report – July 17th – Sully-Chat, John Sickles, More Tulo


                                                                                                                                            
Coming Later Today –    

            10 00 am - Michael Freire - No Room At The Inn

             12 00 pm - Stephen Guilbert - Four Mets on John Sickels' Mid-Season Top 75 Prospects

            2 00 pm – Fangraphs – Top 25 Prospects – Mid Season Review

            4 00 pm – 2015 Draft Prospect - RHP  -  Stephen Kolek  -  Shepherd (TX) HS - UPDATED 7-4-14


The Seattle Mariners released C John Buck. I know his time has come and gone, but you would think an organization like the Mets could find a place for him in the organization. Maybe working with Wally Backman or minor league catcher coach. He was such a positive influence last year in the clubhouse plus he throws a mean whipped cream pie.



 
Noah Syndergaard has got about 70 innings left before his limit. He needs to get hot and for Mets to have a vacancy. Both are conceivable.



Re: Wild Card Race – 

           Five teams with the hardest remaining scheduled this season: Phillies, Reds, Cubs, Brewers, Marlins

Five NL teams that have the easiest schedule for the remainder of the season: Giants, Padres, Arizona, Rockies, Cards


Rehab Update –

            C Tayler Teagarden continued his rehabbing for the GCL Mets on Wednesday, going 1-3 (.200)


            I’m not exactly sure what SP John Lannan is doing at this point. The 29-year old had his 5th ‘rehab’ outing for St. Lucie last night. Is this still a rehab session, and, if it isn’t, can a 29-year old play A+ ball? I need some help here.

          P Luis Mateo pitched two more innings last night for Brooklyn: 0-H, 1-BB




From Stephen Guilbert - 

Since May 25th -  May 25th

Ruben Tejada OPS = .748
Daniel Murphy OPS- .745

Ruben's line since that day (which followed three straight games watching Wilmer Flores start at shortstop): .279/.395/.353/.748 with 23 walks against 29 strikeouts. He's been the 6th best NL shortstop defensively in a strong class, behind Cozart, Peralta, Simmons, Tulowitzki, and Owings




Comment From Pau - Thoughts on deGrom?

Jeff Sullivan: Interesting enough. Capable big-league starter. Nothing outstanding but he would fit in most rotations

Comment From J. Peterman - I don’t debate that the Mets are better off long term being sellers this year, but for a team plagued by disappointment in recent (and less recent) years, can’t something be said for making a modest effort to stay in the race until the end when they’re still relevant at the all-star break?

Jeff Sullivan: They’re 45-50 and seven games out of both the division and the Wild Card. They’re not in the race.



John Sickles/SB Nation-Minor League Ball updated his top 75 prospects yesterday. 

They included:

            14) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets (18): Has had some rough spots but holding steady overall.
         
             46) Rafael Montero, RHP, New York Mets (46): Holding steady.

            60) Kevin Plawecki, C, Mets (NR): Grade B pre-season and almost made the list then.

            61) Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets (109): Slow start in Double-A but he’s maintained command of the strike zone and I think he’ll come around.

I can’t remember the last time Sickles ranked four Mets in his top 75. This is quite impressive, especially since ex-prospects like Travis d’Arnaud and Zack Wheeler have grown past this list.

I also found something else interesting.

Sickles had ranked (after Syndergaard but before Montero) Cubs SS Javier Baez at 15th, Dodger outfielder Joc Peterson at 29th and Cubs infielder Arismendy Alcantara at 34th.

So, my question to you, would you trade Thor straight up for any one of these three?



Gary asked - Hi Mack, Just thought I'd chime in on the Tulo issue. I was at first against it but the more I thought about it the more I liked it. To me a Thor, Plawecki and Herrera package might do it or swap Thor for Neise. We have Travis behind the plate and Murph can probably be signed for reasonable $$$. This leaves us with a Grandy-Murphy-Wright-Duda-Tulo-T'D-Lagares-Kirk/Campbell lineup leaving our pitching pretty much intact which would work for me........your thoughts. Gary Seagren

            What Would It Take To Get Tulo  - 

            We can’t seem to get past the desire for the Mets to trade for SS Troy Tulowitzki, but has anyone taken the approach at what the Rockies would need to get them to trade the face of their franchise?

The contract that ties Tulowitzki to the Rockies is pretty straightforward… $2omil a year through 2020 with a team option for another year in 2021.

What do they not need:

            A centerfielder – Carlos Gonzalez is a superstar and is under contract through 2017

            A leftfielder – Corey Dickerson – the 25-yr old Dickerson is a pre-arbitration team controlled player that is currently hitting .325

            A first baseman – Justin Morneau has one more year on his contract and is currently hitting .312

            A right fielder – Charlie Blackmon stepped in when Michael Cuddyer went down with an injury and the team controlled, pre-ARB outfielder is currently hitting .306 in 350 at-bats.

            A third baseman – Pre-arbitration Nolan Arenado is doing a heads-up job, hitting .289 in 228 at-bats.

            A second baseman – another pre-arbitration players, D.J. Le Mahieu, is hitting .283 in 290 at-bats

What do they need:

            A replacement for Tulo – there really isn’t a top SS prospect in their system. Tulowitzki’s backup, Charlie Culberson, is hitting .190 with 116-AB

            Everybody needs pitching – The five pitchers that have started the most games this year has ERAs of 3.52, 4.56, 5.26, 5.40, and 5.92. Wrose than this is the fact that eight more pitchers have started for the Rockies this year. Something is wrong if Jars Jurrjens (10.61) is starting for you.

            A starting catcher – the closest thing the Rockies have to a star catcher is the ex-prospect Wilin Rosario, who is hitting only .246 in 236-AB

            More team controlled players that haven’t begun their arbitration years yet

So –
            Offer a package of:

-           A pre-ARB shortstop – Wilmer Flores

-           A pre-ARB starter – Jacob deGrom or Zack Wheeler

-           A pre-ARB catcher – Keven Plawecki

-           A ‘level B’ starter – Gabriel Ynoa

They clear salary and take on only approximately $2mil in total salaries, saving $18mil/yr+ filling all their needs



25 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

I like your trade offer for Tulo, Mack - and the Rockies have $18 million reasons to agree. A very good trade for both teams.

I respectfully disagree with Jeff Sullivan on deGrom - I think he is a potential #1 level starter. Why? A strikeout an inning since called up - wow. The rookie had 3 straight bad starts, in which he threw 15 innings and gave up 13 runs. 5 straight strong starts since.

Besides those 3 bad starts, the other 58 innings? A mere 10 runs and 63 Ks. Orel Hersheiser in his prime would like those #'s. AND Jake will help himself over the course of a season win one or two games with his bat, which hitting tool is far above average for a pitcher. He is a future (current?) ace. I did not see it, but my brother said he saw the radar gun pick him up a few times at 98 two starts ago..

Unknown said...

People have been sleeping on deGrom for awhile - this succes, given his lack of lifetime pitching experience, shows he is the real deal

The fact that he is missing bats along with his ground ball rates is impressive.

Sullivan is dismissing deGrom because he wasn't a highly talked a boil it prospect

This is also why everyone discounts Gee

Hobie said...

Re. More Tulo-

OK. Flores, Pawlecki, DeGrom/Wheeler & Ynoa for Tulo (post-season, I’m guessing).

If a 2015-18 Tulo is a reasonable facsimile of 2014 Tulo, that’s reasonable, maybe even exciting. I can’t help thinking that the 2017-2020 Tulo will have use reliving the thoughts of whether 2 years of Santana couldn’t be recycled for a present day Cargo. I'd close my eyes and pull the trigger., but I don’t think Colo would.

Reese Kaplan said...

Forgive me for being a cynic but if the METS don't consider Flores a shortstop, why would the Rockies? And if he is a shortstop, why the hell do we suffer through Ruben Tejada night after night?

Steve from Norfolk said...

Reese, That same thought about Flores crossed my mind, too. As for suffering through Tejada, did you read the quote from Stephen Guilbert above? If those facts make you suffer, you're a hard man to please. Tejada seems to have turned his season around - enjoy it!

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

It's easy for people like Sully to bash someone like deGrom. He's doing something no one expected.

Mack Ade said...

Flores needs a new home. Colorado would need someone to fill the hole created with trading away Tulo and he's the best 'non-ARB' guy we would have.

I can only imagine the success of Flores' bat in the Colorado air

Unknown said...

That's right Mack, Sully would have to admit that he missed one - that's why they diss guys like deGrom

Mack Ade said...

One more thing about Tejada.

Do you know how much easier it is to do your job if the person everyone is writing about that's going to take your job away ISN'T a couple of lockers down in the clubhouse... and the manager has called you in and told you to relax, it's your job?

You wake up every morning knowing you are going to play shortstop.

Big difference for a young sensitive guy

Michael S. said...

As for the Rox and 1B, they might have Morneau for now but he's not getting younger and will be gone after next year. I could be persuaded to include Dom Smith if necessary.

Michael S. said...

Considering how Flores hits in LV, he could become a premiere hitting SS in Colorado even if his defense is avg at best.

Dallas said...

"Jeff Sullivan: Interesting enough. Capable big-league starter. Nothing outstanding but he would fit in most rotations" Please, what rotation would he not fit into?? Leading candidate for ROY in the NL.

"Jeff Sullivan: They’re 45-50 and seven games out of both the division and the Wild Card. They’re not in the race." He is probably right, but we have 12 or so more games before the deadline to decide this right?

"So, my question to you, would you trade Thor straight up for any one of these three?" Thor or Wheeler, get it done.

I think there is a danger in doing these 4-5 for 1 Tulo type trades. He is a great player, but also look at his numbers outside of Coors field. Still really good but not super star. Citifield may deflate them even more. If he gets injured then you are really out of luck. The Mets dont really know what they have yet to trade away all these great prospects and young pieces we have been impatiently building.

Mack Ade said...

Dallas -

The only reason I keep writing about Tulo is people keep bringing him up :)

Frankly, I don't put that much emphasis on shortstop. I think Tejada is doing a Bud Harrelson type year right now and it's always been a 'bat 8th and hit .245' kind of position to me.

I'm still singing the same song.

5 HEALTHY STARTERS producing 7 innings a game of 3 or less runs a game...

This will get the team to the playoffs.

W.T.S. (win the series)

Unknown said...

I'd be looking for a fallback option if Ruben comes back to earth.

Wheeler or Thor for Peterson.

RF Granderson
2B Murphy
3B Wright
1B Duda
C d'Arnaud
LF Peterson
CF Lagares
SS Tejada

And see where it takes you.

Michael S. said...

Tulo keeps coming up because we clearly need a cleanup hitter and there aren't many that happen to be on the market. The fact that he plays SS is a huge plus.

His splits are pronounced this year but if you look at the the three years his numbers have been much closer. Most players play better at home anyway, plus we have the Matt Holliday example. I think Tulo is a top tier MLB player and has been for some time, he's not a Coors-only player. Bringing him in immediately changes everything for the better here.

Ernest Dove said...

...........so I'm trying to figure out how/why so many mets fans think the wilpons are all of sudden going to pay $15+mil/year to three different players (counting Tulu)........did I miss something here? Did they switch ownership during the all star break or something?

Mack Ade said...

do not expect the Mets ownership to spend one more dollar this season than necessary.

also, if salary is dumped (Colon or C Young), don't expect that money to be spent this season either on any new players

Sandy and TC are on their own here and (whether you like it or not) will get all the credit or criticism with the results of their actions during the remainder of the season.

The Wilpons (and their banks) are determined to reduce the operating loss before salaries go (conservatively) up next season.

Dallas said...

Here is a much smarter option than Tulo that I have mentioned before. Hanley Ramirez is a free agent this offseason. The only thing you give up is your #1 pick in the draft instead of 3-4 guys that are at the top of your system. If the Mets wont pay for Hanley they surely wont pay 20 a year for Tulo.

Anonymous said...

good afternoon Mack:
I'm gonna go another direction. Im looking at KC? Alex Gordon for Flores and DeGrom, to play leftfield. After that im calling the Cubs Syndergaard for Baez or Russell.
Tired of all th eTulo talk. The guy is 30 costs 20 mill a year and has had injury problems.
Give me Gordon and Baez and tread water till Harvey is healthy

Mack Ade said...

Anonymous -

Well, let's see...

You trade both Syndergaard and deGrom and your 2015 rotation will be:

Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Colon with Montero as SP6

Not bad if everyone stays healthy

Michael S. said...

Ernest - re-allocate Colon and Young's salaries (and maybe Murphy) and you've got Tulo. It won't happen during the season but easily could in the offseason.

I've read on another site that Alderson covets Tulo and that Niese, d'Arnaud, and a pitching prospect gets in done. The same post says there is a lot of interest in Gee.

So, I'd call the Rox, make substitutions and sweeten the deal:

Gee
Plawecki
deGrom
Montero
Acquired Colon prospect

And see if they bite on Tulo.

Reese Kaplan said...

That's part of the reason it was difficult for Flores to get into a groove. If he didn't drive in six runs he knew he'd be benched. He deserved the same shot Tejada got.

Michael S. said...

Oh, I'd also fire Warthen and bring Frankie V in as the pitching coach.

Tom Brennan said...

I'm with you, Reese. Put Flores at SS in Colorado and he might be the next Chuck Hiller in the field, but he'd put up some meaty Coors Field offensive stats. If he'd played every day with the Mets, he'd have 40-50 RBIs right now, IMO.

Dallas said...

Michael S, I think people would trade about anyone but Trout for that package. 2 major leaguers and 3 very high close to MLB prospects? Seems like a huge amount of talent going to a 30 year old SS with big splits. Maybe his splits other years have been better but count me out on that.