7/8/14

Morning Report – July 8th - 2015, Michael Conforto, Cory Mazzoni, Next Moves


                                                                                                                
Coming Later Today – 

           12 00 pm - MLB Player Of The Week - IF - Wilmer Flores     
         
          3 00 pm – 2015 Draft Profile  -  RHP  -  Jake Lemoine  -  Houston - UPDATED 6-30-14



I placed up, on the right side of page one, both the current wild card standings and the race for the first pick in the draft. Yes, there is half a season of baseball left to go and plenty of time to turn this around, but fans like you need to realize just how many teams are ahead of you in the wild card race. It’s not a simple case of your team winng ten in a row and, let’s say, Atlanta losing ten in a row at the same time. Most, or all, of those Atlanta loses would be to National League teams that would just strengthen their position in the standings.

My friend, Kevin Kernan, of the New York Post has called for the Mets to ‘sell, baby’, which would include the likes of pitcher Dillon Gee and second baseman Daniel Murphy. I have mixed feelings on this.

One thing is certain if you trade a key player during the mid-season trading period… you are trading to a team that is trying to win a playoff spot that year. They are not going to be interested in your future talent and would gladly sell you some of theirs for the right deal.

Secondly, a lot of teams this time of year trade players who are only under contract for the remainder of this year. The Addison Russell for two Cubs pitchers deal is a perfect example. We don’t have that situation. We only have OF Chris Young in that category and he is virtually un-tradeable.

I am a long-time fan of Murphy and would much rather build a team around players like him, David Wright, and Curtis Granderson. I also feel that the one area this team has the most strength, and tradable power, is starting pitchers; however, as of late, they can’t even field their own rotation because of injuries.

I reread my notes on the last Sandy Alderson press conference over and over, trying to read into what he’s trying to tell us all. He is not a stupid man and doesn’t have any desire to keep putting himself in front of a microphone unless he has a purpose. Everything out of his mouth placed the focus of this team in 2016-2017.

I know in my heart that the Mets are ‘sellers’ this year, but they aren’t going to go over to the 7Line and ask them to make some t-shirts saying that statement. I also know that the rotation continues to be brittle (Harvey, Niese, Gee, Montero, Hefner) and certain steps are needed to be taken to insure they turn out to be the best they can be.

No, I expect the minor pieces to be dealt once more for future players. That would include OF Bobby Abreu, SP Bartolo Colon, and P Daisuke Matsuzaka. I also expect some starters to be quietly placed on some innings restrictions (or lengthening of healing periods once they are on the DL). There is no reason for Jon Niese to take another line drive off his body (don’t expect to see him for the remainder of July due to fatigue/velocity issues). Lastly, September could be a good time to experiment and call back up a healed Rafael Montero and Noah Syndergaard. Pitchers like Dana Eveland, Buddy Carlyle, and even John Lannan could get late season play.

Injuries have killed any chance for the Mets to make a decent deal this time of the year. Will we get a new shortstop out of this? Alderson truly feels that he has the middle infielders (Dilson Herrera, LJ Mazzilli, Gavin Cecchini, Phillip Evans, Amed Rosario) to build this team correctly. What he doesn’t have is any of them available for the 2015 season.

I don’t know, but we’re going to have to give Alderson the remainder of this month to see what he can accomplish first, while, at the same time, keep trying to pull the wool over our eyes and tell us the team is still in it to win it


Travis asked –


           Hey Mack, any word on Michael Conforto?

           Mack – Hey Travis… no, things are VERY quiet about this one. I did call an old, veteran scout who has been involved with the Mets minor league system for years and he said that the organization is quiet ‘embarrassed’ about this one.

           Would they have changed their pick if they knew all this up front… hard to say.



Cory Mazzoni had an ‘okay’ first outing for Binghamton last night… five innings, three earned runs, 81 pitches, 51 strikes… what are we looking for here? Well, he turns 25 in October and my hope is he could earn himself a promotion to Las Vegas before the season is over. I don’t see him as a potential member of any future Mets rotation, but I said that about Dillon Gee too. I think he does have the potential to be an SP5 trade chip in a future multi-player deal. 



Howie asked –

           Mack, what do you see as the next promotions in the system?

                       Mack – Hey Howie… actually, the next three will be pitchers that are currently rehabbing.

                       John Lannan, Luis Mateo, and Robert Whalen are all currently rehabbing for St. Lucie and the GCL Mets. On paper, Lannan would eventually return to Las Vegas, Mateo would stay in Florida and somehow fit into the St. Lucie rotation, and Whalen would return to Savanah.

                       The problem is (of course) that all three of these teams already have a full rotation.

                       I find the Lannan case interesting. My assumption is that the Mets plan on using him in some late season capacity IF they trade away one or two current rotation pitchers.

                       As of today, the rotation is:

                       Active – Bartolo Colon, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, Daisuke Matsuzaka

                       Inactive – Jon Niese, Matt Harvey, Rafael Montero, Jeremy Hefner, Dillon Gee

                       Gee will be activated this week leaving the next more to be either the selling off of either Dice-K or Colon (or both). Lannan’s presence would become much more valuable if this was to happen.

                       Mateo is electric, but he’s also injury prone and 24-years old. I would assign him to Binghamton as a back-end reliever and see if his career could be jump-started there.

                       As for Whelan, there’s no rsuh here and they will make room for him in Savannah     


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18 comments:

Unknown said...

What is going on with Conforto? Last I read, they were "minor" contract details. He's only got 10 more days to sign so there still should be a good amount of baseball ahead of him. It's not like previous years where players wait until the deadline and the rest of the season is shot.

Anonymous said...

My guess is that his agent Scott Boras feels the Mets nickled and dimed his client with an offer of only the slot payment. Boras will get the equivalent of overslot by keeping Conforto out as long as possible, raising his bonus if figured on a per game basis.
Hopefully, true ballplayers still want to play ball. That starts by getting on the field.

Anonymous said...

If Conforto doesn't sign do the Mets get another pick next year? If so would it be the #11 pick? The Blue Jays did this year for the failure to sign their 1st pick last year. The rules have changed a bit but I don't know if that aspect of the rules changed.

I also disagree with the Mets going into sell mode in the typical meaning of sell mode. They should be actively trading to improve the team. They should be in buy and sell mode at the same time. They don't need to trade Murphy or Gee but if a trade comes along that will improve the team then make the deal. I don't think that is possible with Gee right now. He is just coming off a 2 month period on the DL. It might be better to let him pitch the rest of the year and then ry to trade him in the off season. Murphy made the all-star team. His value might be at it's peak. If we can get a top prospect at SS or in the O.F.I wouldn't mind seeing Murphy dealt. If we get a return similar to Davis' I would be pissed. With Colon and Dice K I would want a Byrd type return and not a Davis type return. Dice K is the only player that they have to move this month in order to get a return. Every other player we can hold until the off season or even next July if the right trade doesn't come along. The exception would be C. Young but I don't think they would get anything for him.

Anonymous said...

@Richard Jones

If the Mets fail to sign Conforto, they will receive a 1st round pick equal to this year's pick +1.

So this year the Mets had the 10th overall pick so +1 would correctly be the 11th pick in the draft.

Ernest Dove said...

----regarding Conforto

Maybe he's already proving to be a pain in the butt, who thinks he's a star.
Maybe he's a devout family man who wants to cherish this time with loved ones before embarking on a lifelong dream of a journey into professional baseball.
Either way, the Mets (and us fans) have enough to worry about right now. Count me as not caring when it comes to a dude we ain't seein on this team this year, next year, or possibly ever, anyway.

Anonymous said...

What is the status of Leathersich in Binghampton. Walks are down and I believe he leads the minor league's in strike outs per innings pitched for the second year in a row

gapr_09 said...

And this hypothetical 11th pick would be protected ?

Mack Ade said...

Michael Cala ·

I think this guy and his crack agent have a nerve! If I were the Mets I'd say take it or leave it, or we will take 2 first rounders next year and let him hang out to dry. The guy is not the perfect prospect anyway, at least on defense.

Mack Ade said...

To: Michael Cala -

Please don't leave your comments in the first box you see on this site. The site is screwed up.

What you need to do is scroll down and post your comment in the box UNDER THE ORANGE STATEMENT 'POST A COMMENT'

thank you

Mack Ade said...

Re: Leathersich

The relievers are pretty backed up in the system. There's an outside chance he could come to camp next year and win a Queens slot then - it's all based on him cutting down his walks

Anonymous said...

I would like to see the Mets pass on Conforto. He wasn't a top 10 prospect. The Mets took him at 10 because he was the best hitter available in a draft weak on hitting and strong on pitching draft class. They could end up with two picks in the first 11 next year and they would have the slot money available to have a great draft.

Tom Brennan said...

Hi Mack

Regarding the middle infield, IMO the Dilson Herrera Freight Train is in high gear - so maybe he is a mid-2015 call up - depends if the train needs to stop for refueling.

And maybe Matt Reynolds slots in later this year if he keeps up the offense, and perhaps he is a placeholder until Dilson arrives. I still like Flores for 2nd base if Murphy goes. That Wilmer Dude hits, and he will hit well (IMO) at the big league level if allowed to play and not get yanked in and out. Ruben has surprisingly been OK, but we can still do better than what he is capable of, especially on a team that seems to sputter offensively as much as this one does. He gets on enough, but no power and no speed.

Anonymous said...

@gapr_09

This pick would NOT be protected.

Reese Kaplan said...

If allowed to play, Thomas. Remember who fills out the lineup card and his man-crush on Eric Young. He would get the lion's share at 2B if Murphy is dealt. .

Steve from Norfolk said...

If my guess is worth anything, I don't think Conforto is going to sign. What happens to him if he doesn't? Does he have any college eligibility left? Can he be drafted again if he goes back to school, or does he become a free agent?
I think Borass (intentional sp.) is advising him to stay away from the Mets. I don't know enough about unsigned draft picks to know if this is a viable option for him or not. Maybe he's holding out for more cash and no one is letting rt hat out. would someone please enlighten me as to the reality of what, if any, alternatives he has to signing now?

Anonymous said...

Steve
I don't know his options but I do know he can't sign until next year with any other team. I think he could play another year of college ball. If not I think he will be a free agent next year.
I don't think Boras would want to keep him away from the Mets. It is in Boras' interest to see the Mets become a competitive team. Boras would like to see the Mets increase payroll and this will not happen until they increase attendance. Now Boras will still like to see his clients, including Conforto, get the most money possible.

Mack Ade said...

I don't see Boras trying to get Conforto to step away. There's no money in it for him that way (if money is still relevant at his level of life), and he would risk the chance of Conforto bolting and finding a new agent for 2015.

There is something wrong here though.

It just is too quiet.

Robb said...

conforto, yes its slightly disturbing. but as with any contract it could be about terms not dollars. it could be about a 40 man spot. or where he starts. or a scholarship cost. or even a free truck, who know. Dont think that without inside knowledge that just bc they agreed to money means they agreed to a structure or all the non cash payments.

the pick would be protected, but you want him.

maybe he just wanted a couple weeks with his family while boras negotiates. boras typically waits as long as possible to get the most leverage.

i expect it will get done. youll hear about some sort of concession from the mets for boras.