7/25/14

Stephen Guilbert- "Shortstoptions: Internal Candidates"

The rest of the series so far:

1.) Starlin Castro
2.) Javier Baez
3.) Troy Tulowitzki
4.) 2015 free agents
5.) Why infield defense matters
6.) Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor

Want a shortstop to replace Ruben Tejada who is already in the system and major league-ready? Spoiler Alter: This is your only option- SS Wilfredo Tovar. 

This piece will examine which internal option the Mets have at the shortstop position. I have eliminated Ruben Tejada from this post because he deserves a separate treatment that will be published on Monday. This is for anyone else in the system who could slot in at shortstop in the near future and take over for a number of years.

I am not considering a player like Amed Rosario. While undoubtedly an excellent talent, he is still years away from being a major league player. Same with Gavin Cecchini. I want guys who could displace Ruben Tejada come next week or, certainly, 2015 and onwards. Those players are:

Wilmer Flores

I have said this many times: The guy cannot play a major league shortstop. I can list all of the reasons he cannot handle this position defensively but instead, let's examine how the Mets organization thought of him: In 2011, Wilmer Flores played his last game at shortstop in High-A St. Lucie. All of 2012 and all of 2013 Flores spent logging time, well, everywhere except shortstop. In 2014, under pressure to score more runs, the silly idea to convert him back was implemented. It does not change the fact that Wilmer Flores struggled so mightily defensively and it was hindering his progression as a professional athlete that the Mets decided to move the then 20-year-old off of the position.

Sure, everyone likes his bat. I do too. He has very quick wrists, a good eye, and should hit for decent power. He also has a strong arm. But his footwork, range, speed, and propensity for the bad throwing error are still very much there. If the Mets didn't have a true star at third base, I think that would be a fine spot for him. He will still be a poor defender at second and his one defensive skill, his arm, is marginalized there. Flores is far too slow for the outfield. That leaves three options: limit his value at second, create havoc for our pitchers and play him at short, or trade him.

If Murphy gets moved, Flores should slot in at second until Dilson Herrera is ready. If not, Flores has to get moved in a deal for a better bat. The Mets cannot line this guy up at shortstop and expect to win. They build this team around pitching and defense and it negates far too much of that work by slotting a clunky should-be first baseman/DH in the shortstop hole. Trade him to a team who can use him as a third baseman.

Flores is one of the worst shortstoptions in my book, even given the fact that he is cheap and under team control.

Matt Reynolds

The only reason Reynolds finds himself in the Mets system can be attributed to Jose Reyes, whose departure for Miami gave the Mets an extra draft pick used on the former Razorback. Reynolds struggled early in his minor league career but has had a monster year, hitting well over .300 everywhere he has played with a bit of pop and a bit of speed. Reports on his defense are mixed. Some think he could survive shortstop but most think he's a future utility infielder or second baseman. If he continues to hit like he has, the Mets will find a way to get him major league at bats.

I often wonder if Reynolds will end up like Campball, Satin, Nick Evans, Andrew Brown, Matt den Dekker, and many other polished low-ceiling college bats the Mets have drafted year after year. I do not know if he has the talent to be a starter in the major leagues. If he had Wilfredo Tovar's glove, I would be pushing for him to displace Ruben Tejada. Since he doesn't, I'm left thinking this is either a 2B option or bench guy in the future. Or, like so many of our youngsters, trade bait.

Wilfredo Tovar

"Did somebody say my name?" Yes, Wilfredo. You are gone but not forgotten.

Wilfredo Tovar was Ruben Tejada before Ruben Tejada was Ruben Tejada. This was the guy in the system known as the "no bat, insane glove". He is still young, he makes excellent contact, gets on base via the walk a lot, and has absolutely no power. He is also a glove wizard.

I really like Tovar and if Omar Quintanilla or anyone like him even gets mention of a promotion over this guy, there will be hell to pay. Unfortunately, he is not a shortstoption in my book. He is another Ruben Tejada but not quite as good. He absolutely has a future as a major leaguer but not as a starter.

Dilson Herrera

Like Flores, a lot of people think he can play shortstop. I know Herrera has claimed he likes the position better and played it a lot in Columbia and early in his minor league career but a very good development organization in Pittsburgh shifted him over to second base early on in his development and from what I have read (I admit I have never seen him play in person, unlike everyone else on the list), second base is his future.

It looks more and more likely that Daniel Murphy's time in Flushing is limited. Flores, Herrera, and Reynolds are all second base options who look quite solid. None, though, are shortstops.

Omar Quintanilla

I don't think I even need to address this one.
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Conclusion: As far as in-house options go, there are none. If Francisco Lindor were a Met prospect, this series would not exist. He would be flashing the leather in Flushing and Ruben Tejada would be in Vegas, another team, or on the bench. The Mets do not have a Lindor and, frankly, the only shortstop prospect I see in this system worth a damn is Amed Rosario and he is years away. I do not trust Gavin Cecchini's glove (nor his bat) and the other middle infielders in the system are either years away (Guillorme, Ramos) or not shortstops (Reynolds, Flores, Herrera).

The suggestion of Flores or Herrera as shortstoptions need to stop. As I analyzed on Wednesday, this team cannot survive with anything except strong defenders up the middle. You have put your eggs in that basket. Don't burn the basket.

--SG

6 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

It seems to me the Cards shelled out over $50 million for the bat (not the glove) of Jhonny Peralta. Teams do it. Not all shortstops have to hit and field like Mark Belanger or Rey OrdoƱez.

Anonymous said...

@Reese

Well lets not sell Peralta's defense short here. Defensive metrics view him as pretty good. I was upset when the Mets didn't pursue him.

2011: +10.3 UZR
2012: +11.5 UZR
2013: +3.5 UZR
2014: +9.4 UZR

David L. Whitman said...

Not internal options but the play of Eugenio Suarez since being called up for the Tigers could make him or Jose Iglesias available in the offseason. I'd prefer the latter but Suarez has looked good so far and would be cheaper to acquire.

Tom Brennan said...

I'd still rather see offense than poor offense and average to above average defense. Mets won 108 games with Kevin Mitchell pulling a bunch of SS duty. I still think that having a Tejada (or Tovar) as a defensive replacement, with Flores starting, would limit Wilmer's defensive liability and maximize Mets' offense. Until, that is, a better external SS solution comes along.

Reynolds has hit well, and I'd up my thinking on him if he showed more pop.

Stephen Guilbert said...

Soto beat me to it. Peralta has a fantastic glove and I'm bummed the Mets didn't pursue him as well. The guys I wanted the Mets to pursue this past winter were Peralta, Jose Daniel Abreu, and a Murphy-Gardner swap. I would have made this team a contender in three moves. Oh well. Short of that, we have what we have. That's Ruben and little else.

Stephen Guilbert said...

D Whit that's not a bad idea. I'll look into that.