8/11/14

Mike Friere - The Power of Small Changes



At this point in the season, it is pretty clear that our favorite team will not be participating in the playoffs, yet again.  Even the most die hard fans have "given up the ghost" after watching the Mets lose five out of seven games against the Giants and Nationals (two probable National League playoff teams) over the past week.

Our collective hope has turned to anger, disappointment and apathy (even if there are still 47 games yet to play).  Now that the season is effectively over, what do we have to look forward to?   In addition to football season, I am also looking forward to the off season and how the Mets can get better in 2015 (i.e. make the playoffs for a change).

Believe it or not, the Mets are not that far away from playing in October.   Yes, all of you are aware of the talent that is on the horizon, but if you look closer at this year's team, there are positive signs already on the field (think the 1984 Mets).  

Let's focus on some statistics to further clarify my point;

There is a formula called the "Pythagorean Win Theorem" that calculates an approximate win/loss record for a baseball team, based upon the number of runs scored and the number of runs allowed.   The difference between the two is referred to a team's "run differential" (cited by our very own Sandy Alderson earlier this year).

I don't want to make this article just about the formula, as it has been covered on this site before (search the archives if you are curious).

Before we begin, I will freely admit that the formula has it's flaws and it is only a "predictor of success", not a guarantee.  Certain things, such as the amount of games played can influence the results (the more games played, the more stable the formula).  Or, if a team wins a bunch of close games, but loses by a lot of runs when they do lose, it can skew the results.

However, in general terms, it is pretty accurate.  If you don't believe me, go to ESPN's MLB Standings page (or whatever service you prefer) and sort the standings based upon the number of wins each team has.  After doing so, look over at the column to the right and focus on "run differential".  I think it is pretty clear that the better teams in baseball, consistently have better run differentials (except for the Yankees, but that only confirms my belief that the Yankees are affiliated with Satan in some way).

As of 08/07/14, the Mets are sporting a record of 54-61 (115 games played), which is a winning percentage of .470 that translates to a full season record of 76-86 (not a playoff record unless they add another six wildcard slots).   Looking closer, they have scored 441 runs (25th in MLB) and allowed 442 runs (12th in MLB), which is a differential of -1.0 runs (17th in MLB).

Using our formula, the Mets should actually have closer to 57 or 58 wins, which would be good enough for third place in the division, right behind the Braves and five games behind the last wild card slot.  In short, the Mets have been a bit unlucky this year, to the tune of approximately three wins.  With that said, three more wins would not be a major difference in the grand scheme of things.

However, what if the Mets could increase their offensive production by one half run per game, while reducing the the number of runs allowed by one half run per game?   That would translate to a positive, full run per game adjustment to the equation, which sounds like a lot, but is not that far fetched.

I think the return of Matt Harvey, along with the other talented pitchers that are on track to join the parent club next year, could more then meet the reduction in runs allowed per game, listed above.  Furthermore, if Sandy and Co. can add some offense at SS and/or LF in the off season, then adding one half run per game should not be a major obstacle, either.

Let's assume that the Mets can meet both criteria for the next few minutes.

Looking at our current situation, if you added one half run per game to the Mets' runs scored and subtracted one half run per game from their runs allowed, the numbers would change to 499 runs scored (8th in MLB) and 385 runs allowed (2nd MLB), which is a differential of +114 runs.    That figure would be second only to the Oakland A's and would change our current record of 54-61, to a predicted record of  72-43, or a wining percentage of  0.626%!   Extrapolated out to a full season, that winning percentage would produce a record of 101-61 (similar to the Mets teams from 1986-1988).  The Mets would currently have the best record in all of baseball and roughly a nine game lead in the NL East.

I know that sounds like "crazy talk" and perhaps it is a bit too optimistic, or at least, hard to see right now with the current state of the team.  

However, the point of the exercise is that the team is closer to contention then we may realize.   The future "runs allowed" reduction should be a given, with the depth and quality of the pitching that we will have at our disposal in the coming years (hell, that side of the equation may account for more then a half run per game reduction on it's own).  I think Sandy needs to focus on the "runs scored" side of the equation in the off season, by addressing SS and/or LF (the two areas with the most room to grow).  It may cost some of our pitching surplus, but there aren't any short term answers in the minor leagues and/or free agency, with our current budget.

Should make for an interesting winter and an exciting 2015 and beyond.

2 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

If you're giving up approximately the same number of runs as you are scoring then it would stand to reason your record should be .500. However, if you are making dumb decisions in-game that cost the team victories, then it might explain how instead you find yourself well under where you should be. Perhaps the decision-maker-in-charge during the game is what needs to change.

Anonymous said...

I am not a Terry Collins advocate and I can only hope that he isn't in charge going forward.

We still need to add some offense.

Mike