-Our prayers go out to SP Bartolo Colon and his family regarding the passing of his mother at the age of 63.
-Can we assume that the cost of Arbitration increases in the off season will be considered by the Mets as the cost of doing business?
-Can we assume that the cost of Arbitration increases in the off season will be considered by the Mets as the cost of doing business?
If this is
true, there should be money available for new acquisitions from the departure
of players like Chris Young (7.25mil), Eric Young Jr. ($1.85mil), and Daisuke Matsuzaka ($1.5mil).
This would
total $10.6mil, which seems to be a decent amount of money to acquire either a
new shortstop of left fielder and stay within the Wilpon’s stringent payroll
demands.
I can’t help
but continue to smile when I look at the box score for Rafael
Montero on Sunday. Regular readers here know that Montero has been a favorite
of mine since he pitched here in Savannah in 2012.
It was only
one outing, but it proved that he is capable of producing a quality start at
the major league level. I still believe he will be a capable SP4-5 or, as I
desire, a successful member of the Mets pen a la Jenrry
Mejia and Jeurys Familia.
I still
believe that it will take the trading of Noah
Syndergaard to get either a quality shortstop of left fielder. That
being said, the Mets 2015 rotation would still be left with Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler,
Jacob deGrom, Jon Niese,
Dillon Gee, (possibly) Bartolo
Colon, and Montero.
Comment
From Jolly Roger - Who do you think
would be the better stash for next season, Drew
Pomeranz or
Rafael Montero?
Dan
Szymborski:
Depends if you prefer the upside play or the higher floor.
Donation
Drive (drive end 8-30) –
Received so far – $75.00
Goal - $1,400.00 - $1,325.00 to go
God
Bless you for your consideration.
27 comments:
I fully believe Montero will be a very solid major league starter - or, as you suggest, pen guy.
The Dekker experiment has gone well in week 1. Keep it up. Time for Flores to start hitting.
If Wright's difficulties are really due to injuries, he should consider taking the rest of the season off. TJ Rivera could play 3rd and probably do as well for 6 weeks, if this is the best David can do. Or Reynolds to SS and Flores to 3B. Team is hitting .206 in August.
Thanks for the Almond Short Bread! They are awesome! Also the professional packaging was a nice touch. Keep up the good work Mack and Mrs. Mack.
Obviously, September can't come fast enough. .....among other reason, its better for the teams health, because this staff will let u hit or pitch no matter how injured u are, and terry collins will pitch bullpen guys every day, and still go with lefty/lefty and righty/righty matchups during every inning, even when team is short pitchers on a given day/night.
Its like Collins is pushing guys to help team finish 5 games under .500 instead of 10, because I guess that will help him keep his job or something.
Meanwhile, I wouldn't be surprised if 2-3 players or more have some kind of surgery after the season, due to aggrivating a current injury by playing through it.
Found the Montero/Pomeranz question interesting & amusing.
Interesting because I’m not sure which was being referred to as higher ceiling/floor. Amusing because last winter I mused here about trading Ike + Montero for Pomeranz + Kyle Parker.
Raises and Arb is likely to be in the area of $15-17M, so it will eclipse any savings coming off the books. the interesting calls with be with Tejada and Parnell. RT could be looking a bump up to $2M, which is a bargain for a starting SS, but a bit pricey for backup if they replace him in the off season. Parnell could be looking at a $2M raise and may not be ready until May or June, not to mention he never really had the chance to demonstrate he had recovered from the neck surgery and is a FA after the year, so it would be a decent chunk of change to risk on a reliever coming back for only 4 months. if he is healthy and can show that he is back, there would be trade value and added value to the Pen, but the Mets may not know it until the beginning of the summer, so he might be a DFA candidate depending on how his recovery goes in the spring.
The Arb increases could be in the area of $15M, so it is not an insignificant increase and if they kept everyone, the payroll with be in excess of $90M even after counting the departures. there are a couple of interesting decisions to make on the Arb front: Tejada may be in the area of $2M, which is OK for a starting SS, but if they replace him, I suspect that they will DFA him or try to squeeze him into a trade, but that is a bit pricey for a light hitting and decent fielding backup infielder. also, Parnell may not be back pitching until May or June, so it will be interesting to see if they consider him to be a DFA because in addition to TJS, he had not even really demonstrated he had recovered from his neck surgery and he is a FA at the end of the year. Is he worth the $5M risk for 4 months?
I wonder if the Mets could pull another young player from a team if they trade a vet or two this offseason. The FA options aren't great and any OF will be a salary dump/potential problem.
I'd talk to the Cards about Piscotty or Grichuk with their abundance of OF. Even if a kid doesn't necessarily become what we need, young talent is attractive to almost all teams while veterans have a limited market...they could be flipped at a later date.
I just noticed that twins top prospect Buxton may be benched for the season, following a collision which led to concussion like symptoms. .........
Am I the only one who believes that the mets, and their amazin medical team would simply have him wait the madatory 7 days, and then trot him back out there to help their minor league team try and make the playoffs.
Justin -
Thank you.
There needs to be a whole cultural shift in the team which involves more than the players. Unfortunately, the Wilpons and Sandy Alderson are too stubborn to realize that.
Not sure that they make it to FA, but both Justin Upton and Jason Heyward are FA after next season. don't get me wrong, I want a better offense next year, but the FA market for outfielders is weak and JU may be available just for money after next year. hard to believe he is still on 26, seems like he has been around forever, but that is not the same type of 2nd Gen contract as a 30 year old
Anon -
Morning -
I would venture to guess that the Mets are not going to get the 'developed bat' they need from another team via trade (for 2015). There are only so many great bats out there these days and no one trades them.
The team is still almost a season away from establishing itself as one of the premier rotations.
It looks to me that other teams will only trade with Alderson for the players he doesn't want to give up. That makes no current market for the secondary prospect pitchers in the Mets system.
Should the Mets sign questionable free agent bats while this maturation of pitching goes on?
I don't know anymore.
Reese -
I now believe that nothing is going to change for this team until a new owner comes along.
My guess is Alderson will sign another 3-year deal and the Mets payroll will remain below the $100mil level in 2015 and 2015.
Thus, any new 'bats' will have to come from within the system.
Thomas,
I worry that Wright maybe becoming the Mets version of Scott Rolen, with his back fracture and now shoulder issues. You can see how stiff his lower back is when he swings the bat. Flores has done a credible job covering 3B for Wright before. I'd also like a look at Matt Reynolds at this level. But, none of that will happen until the FO concludes that we're not doing anything this year.
Whether they sign a free agent bat or not, move the fences in. This offense needs all the help it can get - an extra 30+ HRs and 20+ doubles per year spread around would take away some of these ugly swoons. People would be asking David Wright about his problems a lot less if he had 12 or 13 HR right now. Duda might be in the home run race. Grandy might actually not look less like a miserable investment and more like a so-so one. Most hitters might be 10-20 points higher. They'd feel a little less pressure.
All for another one-time fence adjustment cost. Cheap vs. spending mega-millions on guys who can hit the ball out in a park with deep dimensions, wind, and sometimes dead air. And who may not come through once you did.
If left field and CF were several feet shorter than now, rather than the absurd dimensions when they signed Bay, I wonder if he would have been decent too. Would he have had another 10 HRs and 10 doubles that first year?
Thomas-
I wholeheartedly agree on moving the fences in for the reasons you mentioned above, but also because I think the Mets pitching is less likely to give up warning track shots than the opposition, so they would gain more than they would lose.
Mack-I also believe that 2015 will not be the year for the Mets, but may look more like 1985, when they took the steps forward for the real run. 2016 will bring a stacked rotation unencumbered with inning limits, positional prospects like Nimmo, Comforto and Herrara ready to internally fill needs, a much better FA class and also more high level positional prospects that I think they will get in return for Colon, Niese, Gee and Murphy, who are almost all certain to be moved in the middle of next year. I actually believe that all four of those pieces will have far greater trade value because of what the contract status will be. Colon is a short term rental without a bloated salary in the following year; Niese will have one more year at $9M, Gee will have one more year of Arb and as we see now, an offensive player like Murphy not signed long term will be attractive to team making a push. will any of them get an Addison Russell or Javier Baez? no, but they will return prospects that may help fill holes internally or provide additional trade inventory that may put a package that will return something big. Can you imagine what their value would be if their contract status was like that this year? Billy Beane could have gotten a half year of Colon for $5.5, Niese for $3.5 this year, with $9M for one more year of a LH starter and Gee for about $2.5M and one more year of Arb. You could have traded all 3 players to one team for about $12M this year and only be on the hook for about $12M the following year. that is 3/5 of a rotation this year and 2/5 the following year of pitchers who have all had success. I am probably in the slim minority, but I am patient enough to wait out one more year of development in 2015, solidify a monster staff, have internal options ready to take over, replenish upper minors with prospects returned in above trades and look to spend after 2015 on Justin Upton or Jason Heyward. Not saying do nothing, but I would sign what you can this off season without blowing the bank and keep all young pitching to see what the staff is going to be 2016-2019 under control. I think the keys to making next year better than this year is all of the pitching in place, some recovery of Wright/Grandy and offensive steps forward for Duda, d'Arnaud and Lagares. Playoff team or 90 wins? probably not, but solidly positioned to be the cream of the NL crop from day 1 of spring training 2016, just like 1986...without the drug problems
Thomas -
I have no problem turning CitiField into Yankee Stadium. The superior Mets young pitching should be able to control the amount of balls that leave the field, vs the additional amount players like d'Arnaud, den Dekker, etc. can bring to the table.
Anon -
you make a lot of sense -
The shorter fences logic is based on the premise that our pitchers will still be able to keep the ball in the park better than their pitchers, and hopefully our batters’ gain will outmatch any inevitable benefit to the opposition. Absent an OF spray chart I cannot affirm or deny that premise. And even then, who can predict how shorter fences would affect what our pitchers throw when.
But I don’t think we need A LOT more HR’s. We do need to match/exceed to opposition in singles, doubles & triples! We need better hitters, period. We’d do fine offensively with 5 or six Daniel Murphy’s in the line-up—better IMO than even the addition of a (single) Stanton—with the fences just where they are. Would be nice if TDA, Flores, den Dekker & Legares (and Wright!) become the other 4 (5) Murphies.
I agree with that hitting approach, but I still think the dimensions could use a little adjusting. DW should have been able to adapt to the widened gaps and abandon the need to pop it over the fence, but he is having a hard enough time right now hitting well struck line drives for a single. Nimmo and Herrara wont add that sort of pop, but both are growing into top of the order table setters. I am actually quite bullish on Nimmo offensive ability and I even think Cecchini will end up surprising many who have already written him off. TDA has shown some flashes, Lagares does need to improve a bit on pitch recognition so he doesn't get himself out too often and can drive the ball to the gaps, but Flores looks really stiff and awkward at the plate and has only 6 BB in 140 plate appearances. that is alarming...can you say Will Middlebrooks?
I agree with you Mack, that our pitchers would give us a net plus in HRs and extra base hits (other teams would allow our hitters more). If you win even two more games, and add a bunch of pop, the fans will like it and turn out more (Wilpon $$$), and the hitters will be really grateful. A grateful hitter is a happier hitter, and hopefully a more relaxed and productive one.
Yeah, wouldn't be fun to even lose a game 8-7 once in awhile?
Murphy leads the league in hits... what would this team be without him?
Flores, d'Arnaud, den Dekker all have the ability to hit .275+
Duda can hit 30+ HRs
Flores, d'Arnaud and Wright can hit 20+ HRs
we have already learned that Murphy, Wright, and Lagares can hit .285+
move the fences in a little more...
there's an outside chance if, everyone would just get off to a good start... ah, I'm dreaming again
Mack
you have come a long way in the bring-in-the-fences question.
It does seem like an acceptable option if the team is limited to a lower budget and resistant to trading young players.
Also in a statistics driven league, all of your offensive players suddenly become more valuable to other teams as trade targets. Heck Granderson's contract would not look so costly if he could benefit from Yankees stadium-like shorter dimensions.
Bob -
Love your logic...
Grandy adds 7-9 HRs a year...
So does Duda...
guys like d'Arnaud go from 19 to 26...
hmmm
Regarding Duda
The only draw back is if Duda goes back to being pull-happy.
He is doing so well as he has been using the whole field like he did when he first came up.
Just need to stay on top of it.
Duda is hitting .156 with a .208 slug % in 85 PA vs. lefties. Mets can experiment with him the rest of this year to see if he can hit lefties. Absent a surge, platoon him strictly. He frankly is wonderful vs. righties (.277/.375/.547), and that's OK. He's NEVER hit lefties, so platoon him. Period.
And Mack, Duda in his career at 1B has made just 5 errors (.997). Terrific.
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