12/12/25

Tom Brennan - Older Hitters and Abundant 98+ Fireballs Don't Mix Well in Baseball

Jose Reyes Lost It Quickly

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN SLOWING "FAST TWITCH" AND HIGHER FB VELOCITY INTERSECT? SOMETIMES, AN UGLY COLLISION OCCURS.

Mack posted the pitch velocity chart (below) the other day, which shows that 98+ MPH pitches in baseball have quintupled. It is why hitting major league pitching gets harder and harder. It is why I believe, for instance, that Juan Soto hasn’t hit .300 since 2021.

that suggests to me two things:

1) Prospects-wise, then, I better be darned sure that any high level hitting prospects I would draft have enough fast twitch and pitch recognition skills to catch up to 100 MPH heat - or those picks will become MLB busts.

Codify @CodifyBaseball

MLB Pitches Thrown At 98+ MPH:

2008: 11,301

2009: 13,785

2010: 14,807

2011: 13,826

2012: 15,615

2013: 17,169

2014: 19,922

2015: 28,093

2016: 28,949

2017: 25,499

2018: 25,621

2019: 27,561

2020: 10,747*

2021: 33,287

2022: 38,274

2023: 40,803

2024: 40,725

2025: 51,597

2) Veteran hitters' ability to catch up to increasingly high heat is a concern.

Remember, 98+ MPH pitches in baseball (per the chart above) doubled since Alonso and Nimmo joined the big leagues. And...old guys' bats often slow down JUST ENOUGH year by year to cause production to diminish. THAT was Stearns' fear.

Remember happy Jose Reyes? Mr. Fast Twitch?

After hitting .285 at age 32, he hit .267 at age 33.

in 2018, at age 35, he hit .189, and his career stopped twitching. He got old fast.

Putting on my David Stearns pants, he probably thinks this:

If Pete wanted 2 years, he'd still be here. Still twitching. But he wanted 5.

Next.

Pete will be 31 years, 4 months old on opening day. Nimmo? 32 years old.

Me? Years 3 through 5, I suspect, will be ugly for a slowing Pete.

Ditto Nimmo and the last 3 of his remaining 5 years (34-36 years old).

I have pointed out over the years in articles how many good hitters just fell off a cliff in their early 30s, or at least started a notable downward slide. It is a real phenomenon.

It does not impact every good hitter the same way. It sure hasn't hit Aaron Judge.

But it does impact a very high % of them.

98+, coupled with devastating sliders, are hard for old guys to hit.

Go younger. Kyle Tucker, Fernando Tatis, anyone?

A really young (and very talented) Carson Benge, anyone?

One more point....

I will say it until I am blue in the face, in case the Mets Front Office ever reads this stuff, but younger Mark Vientos can reasonably replace Pete at 1B...

IF...MARK GETS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON STRIKE ONE.

NO MORE TAKING FAT FIRST PITCHES.

WHY?

Mark is absolutely dreadful when he gets to two strike counts. As I recall, without looking it back up, when his at bats ended on 2 strike counts, he hit .136 - and that represented over half of his 2025 at bats.

Solution?

Swing a lot more agressively early in counts, so there are a lot fewer 2 strike counts.

Result? Higher average, more power for Mark.

Let other guys, like Juan Soto who are good at walking, work walks.

Mark is NOT that guy.

Reese Kaplan -- Has the New Mets Reality Sunk In Yet?

I didn’t mean to be prophetic with my last article questioning what if both prime free agents left but unfortunately I was. Gone first was Edwin Diaz and now off to Baltimore is Pete Alonso. Whew!

OK, so let’s take a deep breath and think a little bit about what needs to be done. Many Mets fans are vocally eviscerating David Stearns and the Mets for having lost three long term players in the trade of Brandon Nimmo and now the All Star reliever and first baseman with only Marcus Semien arriving at age 35 to help fortify the offense and defense during the 2026 season. The Devin Williams deal was greeted with mixed feedback.

The needs are still there. The bullpen needs to be addressed beyond the addition of Devin Williams. Stories appear indicating that the only acquisition done in July with solid effort, Tyler Rogers, is someone the Mets are considering in a return deal as he is now a free agent.

At first base they are beyond empty. Jeff McNeil hasn’t played there. Mark Vientos has but is even worse defensively than Pete Alonso. Ryan Clifford is not yet ready to advance to the majors until he spends quite a bit more time abusing AAA pitchers.

The outfield is even worse. Right now Tyrone Taylor is a starter. If Vientos is at first base then Jeff McNeil is a starter. Juan Soto must be wondering what the hell happened to the barely over .500 club he joined this past season.

Word has also appeared indicating that in addition to the Mets dangling Kodai Senga in trade discussions that they are now also soliciting takers for David Peterson. While those hypotheses are indeed interesting, you do have to wonder who they have in mind as replacements? With potentially Senga and Peterson gone they have just Nolan McLean, Sean Manaea and Clay Holmes are in the rotation. Christian Scott, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat are all behind them and mostly unproven. So making an already weak rotation even more vulnerable seems somewhat curious.

Many folks have mentioned problems in the clubhouse. We’ve all heard the rumors of discord between Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil, Juan Soto and several others, and the whole negative diatribe from Adam Ottavino about Carlos Mendoza’s ineptitude as a manager. When things go wrong people will talk. When things REALLY go wrong, they will shout. How much is true and how much isn’t is unknown but it’s clear the team was in rough shape leading to no October baseball.

Talk to some fans and the proclaim, “Just play the kids!” thinking that force feeding ill prepared minor leaguers into major league roles is a valid approach that generates interest and saves money. While it’s true that David Stearns’ success in Milwaukee was built upon making value picks to strengthen the roster, here he has Steve Cohen’s wallet with precious little to show for his greatly increased payroll that hasn’t led to postseason success.

The other approach many advocate in addition to palming off no longer desired veterans in trades is to use the AA or lower minor league prospects in deals for real major leaguers. Given how little the Mets have done in swapping players (and certainly not successfully under Stearns), it could be the way to go. Unlike George Steinbrenner’s heyday, you don’t generally build a winning roster by buying every available free agent.

It does seem that some pretty major changes need to happen and while some are quick to point out we’re not even halfway through December, player resources are a diminishing inventory that may no longer be available if you wait too long to do something that needs fixing — kind of like the late July arrival of mostly ineffective 2025 reinforcements long past the team’s horrific decline.

MACK - FRIDAY OBSERVATIONS - MACK'S PROSPECT #1 - CF - CARSON BENGE - Jacob Reimer, Mock Draft, Starlin Marte

I promised all of you that, as soon as the season ended, I would breakout and post my current Top 30 prospects.

This is performance based, not players that came to the Mets full of promise but have only produced butterscotch pudding. A perfect example of a player that didn’t make this list is catcher Ronald Hernandez. I still like the guy, but based on what he did in 2025, I don’t like him “top 30 guy”.

Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong _(maybe) are not on this list. They have graduated.

I will post them in each of my weekly Observations and In Focus posts… one player at a time… beginning with #30.

Today, we move on to numero uno:

1. CF Carson Benge

RF/CF/P 6-1 185 LHH 23/yrs. old in January

1^st round (1.19) 2024 – Oklahoma State

2025 – A+/AA/AAA – 519-PA, 92-K, 68-BB, 15-HR, 73-RBI, .281, .857-OPS

Carson Grant Benge is a highly touted outfield prospect in the New York Mets organization.

Originally a two-way player in college (outfield and pitching), Benge signed a $4 million bonus with the Mets on July 23, 2024, and committed to focusing solely on outfield duties.

Oklahoma State - Benge starred for the Cowboys, earning All-Big 12 First Team honors in 2024 after slashing .335/.444/.665 with 24 doubles, seven home runs, 43 RBIs, and more walks (42) than strikeouts (32) in 304 plate appearances. His on-base skills and power potential stood out.

2024-2025 - Benge quickly adapted to pro ball, debuting with Single-A St. Lucie (.273/.420/.436 over 15 games, two HRs).

He represented the Mets in the 2025 All-Star Futures Game alongside pitcher Jonah Tong.

Mets president David Stearns has confirmed Benge will compete for the Opening Day center field job in 2026 Spring Training, potentially solving a long-term need after short-term fixes like Harrison Bader and Jose Siri.

While his defense (71 starts in CF since high school) draws some caution, his elite bat (.281 AVG, 15 HRs in 2025 minors) and speed (22 SBs) make him a strong in-house option. Analysts project an MLB ETA of 2026, with potential to contribute immediately if he refines his glove work.

No position is harder to fill in free agency than center field. Eight of the 10 best center fielders in baseball last season (by FanGraphs’ wins above replacement) made their big-league debut for their current team. (The exceptions were Trent Grisham and Jung Hoo Lee.) It was nine of 10 in 2024 (J.J. Bleday the exception), eight of 10 in 2023 (Cody Bellinger and Kevin Kiermaier), and nine of 10 in 2022 (George Springer) and 2021 (Starling Marte).

That means in the last five years, of roughly the 50 best center field seasons, 43 came from players either developed entirely in-house or acquired as minor-leaguers. Only four came from free-agent signings (Lee, Bellinger, Kiermaier and Springer).

Compare that to first base, where in the same time frame, just 21 of the best 50 seasons have come from in-house options (five of them by Pete Alonso).

There’s a reason why it’s so hard to add a center fielder in free agency

11-12-25

RVH

Carson Benge, a 2024 first-round pick, was named as a real candidate to make the big-league roster out of spring training.

MetCast @MetCastPod

I’ve been saying this for months — multiple people inside the Mets organization have told me that Carson Benge is the apple of their eye and was considered “untouchable” at this year’s trade deadline. I also reported that he could be competing for a roster spot as early as this spring training.

MACK – If this was true, it will change everything immediately about the immediate future of the Mets outfield. Your starters out of cam could be Benge, Brandon Nimmo, and Juan Soto, moving Tyrone Taylor to a late inning defensive move in right

Running From The OPS @OPS_BASEBALL

5 Hitting Prospects To Watch In 2026

MLB New Mock Draft

MLB

The Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Blue Jays and Dodgers had their top picks dropped 10 spots as a penalty for exceeding the $241 million competitive balance tax threshold in 2025 by more than $40 million. But we can't leave anyone out during holiday season, so here are predictions for those clubs as well:

27. Mets: Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas (No. 29)

Helfrick combines the ingredients of a potential Gold Glover behind the plate with 25-homer upside.

MACK –

Aw, come on… another catcher?

Source: Mets and Starling Marte have mutual interest in reunion

The idea is that Marte could fit as a bench piece, who can serve as a part-time DH and backup outfielder, a similar role that he played in last year upon the arrival of right fielder Juan Soto.

Soto and Marte are very close with each other and Soto went as far as to tell The New York Post that Marte was actually the captain of the Mets given his leadership skills.

MACK –

I like this for multiple reasons. First, it will be hard to find a more talented short-term utility outfielder and, second, Marte will calm things down in the clubhouse after the departure of both Diaz and Nimmo.

12/11/25

ANGRY MIKE: 2025 PROSPECT REPORT: ZACH THORNTON

ANGRY MIKE

OVERVIEW:

The Mets drafted Zach Thornton in the 5th round of the 2023 draft, and after a solid professional debut, they decided to challenge the young left-hander during the 2024 season. Thornton was credited for putting in a tremendous amount of hard work during the off-season, which is why he enjoyed a breakout 2025 season, posting numbers as dominant as any other pitcher in the system. If it wasn’t for an abdominal injury that forced him to miss the final month and half of the season, there is reason to believe Thornton would have not only finished the year in Syracuse, he might have even earned a couple starts at the MLB level.

Thornton posted exponentially better numbers across the board compared to his 2024 season, despite spending the majority of the season facing much more advanced competition. He exuded confidence and navigated through lineups with conviction, and his performances were on par with some of the best pitchers not only in the Mets system, but in the entire minor leagues. Unfortunately for him, the Mets have the deepest collection of high impact starting pitchers in the MLB and a record number of them posted breakout seasons at almost every minor league level. Despite Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and others gaining all of the media attention, Thornton quietly put together as dominant of a season as anybody prior to his injury.

Thornton threw 6 perfect innings in Double-AA, only to watch Tong throw 6.2 perfect frames. Thornton posted an ERA of 1.98 across 72.2 IP, only to watch Tong finish with an ERA (1.43). Thornton dominated hitters holding them to a .187 BAA, an astounding number for a starting pitcher in AA, only to watch Tong post a .146 BAA. Thornton also showed improved strikeout potential, posting a 29% K-Rate, only to be bested again by Tong’s 40% K-Rate.

Tong posted an incredible 0.92 WHIP, ranking second behind Thornton’s remarkable 0.81 WHIP. Thornton posted a 4% BB-rate which has only been seen one other time by a Mets prospect, Christian Scott, several years ago. The idea isn’t to make this article about Jonah Tong, the point is to show you that Thornton’s season was on par with Jonah Tong’s historic season, which was by far the most dominant season ever by minor league pitcher.

You like what we did there? That’s why Mack calls me a “writer”…

2025 SEASON HIGHLIGHTS:

14 GS | 72.2 IP | 1.98 ERA | 0.81 WHIP | .187 BAA | 48 H | 11 BB | 78 K

- 2025 K-Rate (29%) -> (‘24 18%), despite facing more advanced competition

- 4% BB-Rate was the lowest in MiLB among pitchers with at least 70 IP

- Only other pitcher in the system to throw 6 PERFECT INNINGS in 2025

- Only 1 outing allowed 4 ER -> 2nd lowest to Tong

- 13 Outings -> allowed 3 ER or fewer -> that’s 93% of his total outings

- 7 Outings -> ZERO ER allowed

- 2 Outings -> One ER allowed

- 2 outings -> Two ER allowed

- 9 Outings -> 5+ IP & 6+ strikeouts

- HALF of his outings for the season -> 5+ IP & 3 or fewer hits

- 6 Outings -> 2 or fewer hits

- He walked 11 batters total fir the ENTIRE season

- 5 Quality Starts -> 22 IP | 0.41 ERA | 0.50 WHIP | 36 K | 7 H | 4 BB

- 4 Outings -> 21.2 IP -> 8 BB

- 10 Outings -> 50 IP -> 3 BB

- 56.1 IP versus RHB -> 59 K | 34 H | 8 BB | .172 BAA | 0.75 WHIP

LHP versus RHB SPLITS:

Z. Thornton: Not Ranked -> 56.1 IP | .172 BAA | 0.75 WHIP

T. White: #22 | Top 100 -> 65.1 IP | .183 BAA | 1.26 WHIP

P. Tolle: #28 | Top 100 -> 72.1 IP | .216 BAA | 1.05 WHIP

N. Schultz: #40 | Top 100 -> 43.1 IP | .320 BAA | 2.03 WHIP

R. Snelling: #51 | Top 100 -> 84.2 IP | .203 BAA | 1.03 WHIP

2026 OUTLOOK:

Thornton has nothing left to prove in AA, and should spend the majority of his 2026 season as part of a formidable Syracuse rotation, that will feature several of the Mets Top Prospects. The only reason we might see Thornton begin the year in AA is if the Mets delay Sproat’s insertion into the MLB rotation for a couple weeks by starting him in Syracuse. It’ll be a house-keeping type move that has him begin the year in AA, it won’t be because he’s not ready to tackle the next level.

2025 highlighted Thornton’s continued evolution into an impact starting pitcher, his velocity spiked up consistently into the low-90s MPH, topping out at 95. Thornton featured a devastating cutter that he used to keep hitters off-balanced, while deploying his above average changeup and slider as his put-away pitches. Watching Thornton’s starts, you’ll notice how he challenges hitters in the zone, and knows how to induce chase to put them away. Thornton excels at using a tactical approach to locate his pitches, for setting hitters up for a potential strikeout or to induce weak contact.

He still has considerable projection left on his 6’4 frame, so there is reason to believe he’ll continue too add a couple more ticks of velocity as fills out and increases strength. Despite not throwing as hard as Top 100 ranked prospects, Thornton posted some of the best splits versus right-handed batters for the season. Four left-handed starters were ranked among the Top 51 Overall prospects and Thornton posted the lowest BAA & WHIP among them all. This might play a crucial role as to how we might potentially see Thornton deployed during the 2026 season, as it might expedite his arrival to Queens, as a potential high-leverage multi-inning reliever.

A.J. Minter’s health remains a question mark, Gregory Soto’s return seems unlikely, and Danny Young is out for the season because of TJ surgery. Even if the Mets add a lefty-reliever this winter, Thornton might be an option to consider for the bullpen when the pennant race heats up. Although Thornton’s future is going to be as a starter, having a dynamic multi-inning RP, with elite control and elite strikeout potential, could be the difference between making the playoffs or making reservations for Cancun.

The Whitesox utilized Garrett Crochet the same way, and Stearns even deployed Burnes as a reliever during his initial stint in the MLB, so there is historical precedent to use him in this capacity if the need arises. I can tell you with confidence, Thornton will not pull a Frankie Montas, and start whining about having to pitch out of the bullpen, as he’s a competitor who will fill whatever role the Mets need him to, especially if it means competing for a World Series.

Just watch him pitch and you’ll understand.

Thornton is primed for a huge 2026 and will continue to be one of the more closely watched prospects in our farm system by the “House of Angry Mike”, because of the potential upside he offers and for the fact he has the rare potential to continue improving his future ceiling like our other Top Prospects.

MACK - POSITION ANALYSIS - SP - (1 of 5)

Position Analysis – SP

Good morning. There are 25 starters on this list. Yup. Double checked. Still 25.

I’m going to stretch this out by breaking it into five separate pitchers per post.

So, we start with five guys I feel will start the season with AAA-Syracuse:

(Oh… missing from this list is someone that could return to AAA in April. Brandon Sproat. I have him in Queens.

Jonah Tong –

2025 – AA/AAA:

22-ST, 113.2-IP, 179-K, 10-5, 1.43, 0.92,

Mets:

5-ST, 18.2-IP, 22-K, -0.8-WAR, 2-3, 7.71, 1.77-WHIP

You already know everything about this guy… pitched like Tom Seaver in the minors… pitched like Tom Brennan in Queens. I watched him when he hit Citi. I never saw a dear in headlights with a baseball in his hand before. It was such a shame coming off the 2-ST, 11.2-IP, 17-K, 2-0, 0.00, 0.94 masterpiece he put up in Syracuse prior to being called up. Look, he may dazzle us all in ST and wind up in the Mets rotation on OD, but I doubt it. Slow the journey down a little and let him build back his confidence.

Jack Wenninger –

2025 – AA Binghamton: 26-ST, 12-6, 2.92, 1.15, 135.2-IP, 147-K, 42-BB

Every organization has someone no one talks about. I call it “the quiet one”. Well, that’s Jack. Question? When was the last time you saw ink on this guy? All you every ready about is McLean, Tong, and Sproat. Sounds like a law firm specializing in accident recovery. Well, regular readers here will tell you how early I began touting Wenninger. 2026 should be the year he stands out in Syracuse and becomes a true 2027 starter option. I believe he has the potential to become the Don Drysdale on this team. Oh… youngins… look him up.

R.J. Gordon –

2025 – A+/AA: 26-G, 21-ST, 11-3, 3.36, 1.15, 128-2-IP, 147-K, 46-BB

Another quiet one. Just goes out there and does hisjob. Went 6-1 for Binghamton. Being pushed by the 7 qualified starters that are hitting Binghamton this spring, so look for him at a Cuse team near you.

Joander Suarez –

2025 – AA/AAA: 23-G, 18-ST, 6-4, 3.76, 1.05, 93.1-IP, 93-K, 17-BB

Suarez is targets as opening the season as the Syracuse SP-5. His challange is to fight off Binghamton starters when they begin to open the clubhouse door. Not sure he will be able to do that.

Jonathan Pintaro –

2025 – Mets: -0.1-WAR, 0-0, 27.00-ERA

AAA: 17-G, 5-ST, 2-3, 5.22, 1.66, 39.2-IP, 46-K, 29-BB

Super K/9 stuff… not much else. Pintaro looks to be starter filler starting off this season, and I might be wrong at that. If the Mets decide to either start Brandon Sproat here, or bump up one of the seven projected Binghamton starters, Pintaro will be pen bound in the spring.

Paul Articulates - A brave new world

The bottom fell out yesterday for the New York Mets of 2025. The ink was still wet on Edwin Diaz’ $69M deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers when word hit that Pete Alonso had reached agreement to become a Baltimore Oriole. Then the other shoe hit – the Mets had lost three of their minor league prospects in the minor league rule 5 draft.

Before getting into the implications, let’s go through the recent events:

Edwin Diaz chose to accept an offer from the Dodgers for a three-year contract worth $69M, which is an AAV of $23M. Diaz was making $18.5M AAV with the Mets and had two years plus a club option remaining when he exercised an opt-out provision in his contract to test the market. The Mets were active in the negotiation with Diaz, and knowing the resources available to the Mets’ leadership, it is not likely that they were unable to afford the raise. No, I would suggest that Diaz did not want to return.

Pete Alonso has flirted with free agency for two years now, looking for a deal that would give him and his family a lifetime of security. It was clear that there were several teams interested, including the Mets. Pete signed for five years, $155M. Not many details of the contract are available, but unless there is significant bonus money involved, it would be an AAV in excess of $30M per year. For reference, Freddie Freeman is making $27M per year through the 2027 season. We may never know how competitive the Mets’ offer was, or how strong the pull of the New York fans was for Pete. The deal is done, and Pete is no longer a Met.

Three Mets’ minor leaguers were among those unprotected in the organization that were tapped in the rule 5 draft:

RHP Trey McLoughlin: Trey pitched with both the St. Lucie Mets (low A) and the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (AA) last season. He had a 2-0 record with a 4.09 ERA in 22 innings with the AA team. He was very well thought of in the organization and had received an invite to play in the prestigious Arizona Fall League in 2023. McLoughlin will be 27 this summer.

RHP TJ Shook: Shook was a relief pitcher who was obtained in a mid-2024 exchange of minor league pitchers with the Milwaukee Brewers. Shook spent the 2025 season closing for the AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies with 7 saves in 9 opportunities, logging a 2.34 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 50 innings. Shook was a late bloomer, with his recent success coming after several years moving through a variety of teams. He will be 28 years old next season.

RHP Dylan Tebrake: Tebrake was an eighth round pick out of Creighton in the 2022 draft by the Mets. He was a high K-rate pitcher in the lower minors (St. Lucie, Brooklyn) until he was sidelined for the 2024 season due to injury. Last year he made a brief return, logging four innings with St. Lucie, but was expected to be healthy this year.

The Mets also poached two pitchers in the rule 5 draft, RHP Justin Armbruester from the Orioles and LHP Aaron Rozek from the Yankees.

The rule 5 transactions were just part of the normal process of MLB teams mining for gold by trying to identify talent that they can mold into someone of value to the organization. The free agent losses were enormous in proportion to the rule 5 activity. But there is a common element, and that is change.

When the 2025 season ended, David Stearns vowed to do a full analysis of the root causes for the very significant meltdown the team experienced. The real results of that analysis are privileged information to the ball club and there are probably very few people who really know what the details of that analysis are. But the actions that have transpired over the last few weeks – the trading of Nimmo for Semien, the departure of Diaz and Alonso, and probably more player movement to follow points to a pretty clear objective. Stearns decided to make major changes to the construction of this team – from the core on out.

Mets fans will surely struggle with the loss of some real fan favorites. All of us had embraced them as key parts of the journey towards a championship that has not been celebrated in 40 years. However, the leadership showed that they did not have confidence that this was the right roster to get there, and last year’s results justify that position. It is going to be hard to watch further dismantlement of the team, but at the same time there is an underlying hope that this next iteration will be stronger and more likely to compete for the title. Only time will tell as the new coaching staff works with new acquisitions and the advancement of some top minor league prospects.

12/10/25

RVH - Why Right Field Really Is the Tougher Outfield Position And What That Means for Juan Soto

Every Mets fan has heard the same refrain this offseason: “Soto in right field? Get ready for chaos.” The worry isn’t irrational. Defensive metrics have not been kind to Soto, and fans have been conditioned—rightly or wrongly—to expect adventures when the ball heads his way.

But before we get to Juan Soto specifically, it’s worth settling a foundational baseball misunderstanding that fuels much of the panic. Many fans believe left field is the tougher defensive position because most hitters are right-handed and righties pull the ball to left. On volume alone, that’s true. But difficulty isn’t measured by quantity. It’s measured by the quality of plays demanded.

Once you zoom in on ball-flight physics, range expectations, field geometry, and throw-value math, a different truth emerges. Right field is the more demanding defensive position. Full stop. And understanding why helps us understand the actual challenge facing Soto—and what the Mets can realistically do about it.

The Slice Problem: Why Opposite-Field Contact Is Harder to Defend

A right-handed hitter’s pulled fly ball to left field carries hook spin. And here’s the crucial part: a hook curves toward the left fielder. The ball essentially helps the defender by bending back into their path.

Opposite-field contact is the opposite story. A right-handed hitter’s fly ball to right field carries slice spin—the ball veers away from the right fielder late. These balls:

Start on one trajectory and bend unpredictably into the foul line or deep alley
Require sharper angles and faster first steps
Force the right fielder to cover more ground, often into the biggest section of the ballpark

Statcast data backs it up: a far higher percentage of the league’s toughest outfield plays occur in right field and right-center, not left. So even though left field gets more balls, right field gets the hard ones.

More Real Estate, More Responsibility

The majority of MLB parks share a common design quirk: the deepest, widest alley tends to be in right-center, not left-center. For a right fielder, this creates a huge zone of responsibility—far more than their counterpart in left.

Add in slice trajectory and you get plays that are simply not part of a left fielder’s regular life. What left fielders get are straightforward grounders, high-arcing hooks, and predictable liners. What right fielders get is often geometry, physics, and sprint speed combining into one stressful moment.

This is why teams routinely assign the more athletic player to right field. And why defensive metrics show larger performance variance in RF than LF—the position magnifies skill gaps.

The Throwing Reality: RF Makes the Highest-Leverage Throws

Right fielders make:

The longest throw on the diamond (to third)
The second-longest high-value throw (to home)

Left field simply does not have equivalent leverage-throw responsibilities. Because of that alone, MLB teams sort outfielders accordingly:

Right field: strong arms, better athletes, premium defenders
Left field: bat-first players, minimized defensive exposure

This is why it’s normal to see superstars—Judge, Betts, Acuña, Tatis—anchoring right field. It’s not just an arm thing; it’s an everything thing.

So What Does This Mean for Juan Soto?

Here’s the good news.

Juan Soto’s problem is not his arm. His arm strength is actually above-average and perfectly suited for right. His issue has always been the first 10 steps: reads, routes, and how he handles the slice. That’s coachable. And now that he’s in a system with far better defensive infrastructure than he’s ever experienced, the Mets have a real chance to upgrade his performance.

In other words, the Mets aren’t asking Soto to play catcher. They’re asking him to play a position that demands competence, not brilliance, and one where coaching and positioning can dramatically narrow the gap.

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