3/7/13

Syndergaard's Impact on the Mets' Pitching Foundation

I'm making a bold prediction - Noah Syndergaard is going to wind up as the best of the Mets' Big 3 young RH starters.  But that's not why I'm writing this post.  I'm writing this post to discuss the impact his acquisition has on the organization's pitching depth as a whole.  The team can focus on developing their youngsters as ace relievers or as trade bait rather than hope and pray they're lucky enough to make it healthfully and successfully to the big leagues.

Whereas before Syndergaard was acquired, the Mets were going to fill their SP4 and SP5 pitching rotation spots and have to either hope one of their other arms pans out, spend money on the free agent market, or expend some of their valuable assets to trade for pitching.  Now every one of those issues will be in the black if Syndergaard pans out.  If he reaches his ceiling, the team would be getting SP1 production from the SP4 slot in the rotation - a clear advantage over any team they might face.  The other arms in the system would only have to account for ONE rotation spot, and at that the SP5 where not much will be expected...if not they can fight for bullpen time.  If the Mets decide to fill that last spot with a free agent, they will have the luxury of deciding between picking off the scrap heap at a bargain price or going all out and signing another team's ace, thus giving them a juggernaut pitching rotation.  Lastly, the tradable assets in the organization can be saved to trade for OFers, the real weakness of the team.  Bringing back Syndergaard in the Dickey trade might prove to be Sandy's smartest move of his tenure.

So, the rotation should shape up as:

SP1 Harvey
SP2 Wheeler
SP3 Niese
SP4 Syndergaard
SP5 OPEN

I'm not going to speculate as to whom the fifth member of the rotation might be at this point.  A lot can change in a couple of years and there is no telling what trades, draft picks, or free agents might join the system.  The point I'm trying to make is that the foundation is set and we need not worry about the starting rotation going forward.  I will take a look at the bullpen, however, and see if the Mets have any long-term problems there.

A normal major league bullpen is comprised of 5-7 pitchers with one pitcher as the designated closer.  Some teams opt for the 'bullpen-by-committee' where closing duties are shared, however I'm skipping that in favor of the more traditional model as it is usually more effective and successful.  I'm also going to assume that the Mets are going to employ a 6-man pen, 5 relievers and 1 closer in order to balance out the roster (6 hitters on the bench as well).  In many cases, the bullpen is a place where failed starters are relegated to in order to see if they have some value to the team before being cut loose.  Suddenly, within the Mets organization the bullpen is going to be a place where highly-talented pitchers are competing with each other in order to hang onto a spot on the roster.  In other organizations they might be fighting for a chance at the rotation, but now with Syndergaard in-house, their career paths will be moving in a different direction should they stay in blue and orange.

As with the rotation, the bullpen's foundation is likely set already...we just aren't certain of the names.  Be sure, most of the Next Mets relievers are with the team, it's just time that they rise up to the top and claim their spots.  Most major league teams use their bullpens as a place to store a long-reliever, a speciality pitcher (LOOGY), or a veteran with experience.  In order to account for that with the presumed 6-man pen, we can assume 2 relievers will be acquired from the heap when needed.  That leaves a foundation of 4 bullpen arms for the system to produce.  Bobby Parnell seems to have all but locked up his spot after last year and may yet be the closer for the Next Mets.  Lefty Josh Edgin has also proven himself to be very capable.  Only two spots left and a slew of arms to compete for them - Mejia, Familia, Gorski, Gee, Montero, Mazzoni, Pill, Goeddel, Tapia, Mateo, Fulmer, deGrom, and Verrett are just some of the names that will be fighting for those bullpen slots.  With all of this irganizationals talent, the Mets just might wind up with an all-homegrown pen.

Before Alderson acquired Syndergaard in the Dickey trade, it was known that the Mets had deep organizational pitching.  Now, the addition of another bona fide SP1-talent pitcher to their stable solidifies almost the entire starting rotation, thus making almost all other pitching talent in the organization available for the bullpen or to trade for some much-needed OF help.

5 comments:

Rusty Staub said...

Next year at this time we should be sitting pretty. We will have another top ten draft pick to go with our #11 this year. And also some more youngsters that we get back from the midseason trades that we made. So our minors will be pretty stacked. Then we can trade syndergard and others for Stanton. I also think Cowgill will be awesome this year.

Christopher Soto said...

why would the Marlins trade Stanton to another NL east team when they can get 3+ prospects from other teams??

Michael S. said...

Soto, I don't know why you're so against the idea of Stanton coming to the Mets. Sure, if he were traded tomorrow the Mets couldnt compete but there's no telling what position they'll be in in a year.

The Marlins had no problem sending Delgado and LoDuca to the Mets in separate deals. Loria doesn't seem to have a problem pissing off his own fanbase as shown by the willingness to move all of the team's stars sans Stanton in one offseason. Heck, knowing his thinking, maybe he'd prefer that Stanton go to a divisional rival as they will play the most games in Miami, guaranteeing that Stanton is with a team that would bring him back for the most number of games and guaranteeing high fan turnout for all of those games.

The Marlins can get 3+ prospects from other teams? Then overpay 4+ prospects to make sure he ends up in NYC. If Stanton makes it until next offseason with the Marlins the Mets should be working overtime to ensure he plays the rest of his career in Blue and Orange.

Anonymous said...

Woahh.....I never said I was against bringing Stanton to NY. If Sandy can pull it off then I'll be ecstatic.

I just think people believe it'll be easy to pry him from Miami due to all the prospects we got when it actuality it wont be at all.

Michael S. said...

Sorry Chris, I didn't mean to imply that you didn't want him here...I just get the feeling you think it'll be impossible.

I fall in the middle, neither easy nor impossible. In fact I think the plan going forward should be to try and build a trade package that will give the Marlins no choice but to move him to the Mets. Evaluate what their needs are and make sure that no other team can come close to addressing them. If Stanton is dealt tomorrow, we won't get him.

I think that over the next 10 months the Mets FO can acquire pieces for the Marlins and do it well if it is a main focus. Why not? Our biggest need is the OF and collecting pieces to trade for Stanton will be addressing our biggest need by proxy.